There are some pundits who like to react early in the season…you know the people we mean. The ones who think that after a couple of games that players are going to hit their career highs. Or the ones who will go out on a limb to and project 10-20% increases in projections after an impressive week.
That was the case with the Islanders back in early October. After white hot start, there were fantasy prognosticators fitting them for Stanley Cup rings and calling guys like Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko and especially Mike Comrie to mow down their previous statistical highs.
It is for this reason that we rarely change our projections in October unless there is a trade, injury or significant call-up. It’s too easy to get caught up in the hype. Why spend an entire summer slaving over numbers only to second guess yourself after a few games?
The poster boy for this is Mike Comrie. Here’s a guy who had 4 goals and 6 points after his first two contests. All around the fantasy world owners scrambled to pick him up and “experts” heralded a new era for the diminutive Edmontonian.
But wait, what have we heard of him and his Islander teammates lately? Did we miss the news release with the Stanley Cup parade route?
Nope, Comrie and the rest of his Islander teammates have come back to earth. After 6 points in his first two games and 6 points in a 4 game streak between October 18 and November 1st, he has tallied 6 points in the other 12 games. This is hardly a ringing endorsement for Mike. And more importantly, when you run the numbers again using his first 18 games, it quickly becomes apparent to us that we’re happy sticking with our 55 point projection.
If we were you, we’d look for a taker and trade Comrie as quickly as possible.
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1 comment:
Very nice set of articles, guys. It's funny to see my Kipper trade mentioned in the post. Jonathan, are you getting any of my e-mails lately?
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