Week #2 - Here comes the M*A*S*H unit

After some big time fantasy players were sidelined with injuries in week two, I wanted to chime in with my two cents:
Boston – well the injury bug has hit hard in Beantown. Marc Savard has been sidelined for up to 6 weeks with a broken foot, Milan Lucic is gone for at least 3 weeks with a dislocated finger and Dennis Wideman has been injured, but returned just last night. For the other B’s these two big injuries should translate into additional ice-time for the like of David Krejci, Brad Marchand (just called up), Blake Wheeler should and the newly arrived Daniel Paille (from Buffalo). In Krejci, the sleek play-making center will get more opportunities to create and that’s good news for fantasy owners as he has a meager 3 assists so far in 8 games. Paille’s arrival was a salary dump for the Sabres, but not as great as one for the Bruins – who essentially moved Chuck Kobasew to the Wild and then picked up Paille. The Bruins save more $ against the salary cap as well as get a bit bigger in terms of the comparison between Kobasew and Paille. To date, Marchand has not lived up to his junior hype in the AHL, and will have to show he deserves the opportunity in Boston with Savard gone. Don’t rush out to get him right away.

Minnesota – reached out and acquired Chuck Kobasew with the hope that they will get some secondary scoring, on a team that has not generated a lot of offense. Pierre-Marc Bouchard has been sidelined indefinitely with a concussion and the hope from Wild management is that Kobasew can provide for the loss of some of his offense. From a fantasy perspective, Kobasew will likely skate with James Sheppard on the team’s 3rd line, but we’re not betting that he’s going to make that large of a difference statistically to make you want to get him.

Pittsburgh – Sergei Gonchar is out for 6 weeks with a broken wrist. This will be Gonchar’s 3rd big injury in three years. The good news, is that it’s only 6 weeks and not longer, and that hopefully he’ll be rid of the injury bug for the remainder of the season. This unfortunate news will mean a slight decrease in the Pens PP, but it will mean more minutes and fantasy points for Letang and Goligoski in particular. With Gonchar out, these two young guns will likely man the points for the vaunted Pens PP. I expect a dip in their special teams production, but only slightly until Gonchar returns.

After Week One...

After week one to this years’ NHL season, there has already been a number of fantasy developments so let’s get it.

Montreal – how bad is it for the Habs to lose their best player, Andre Markov, for four months in the first game of the season. This is bad news for the Habs PP, as well as the other Hab forwards who would have been the recipient of Markov’s excellent break out passes. For fantasy owners of Markov this is pretty disastrous. Not only is it going to be 16 weeks before Markov may return, he’s going to need a least another month to hit his stride. In the meantime, GM Bob Gainey has turned to the much travelled Marc-Andre Bergeron to fill the offensive void. Bergeron should be not bad at QB-ing the Habs PP, but he won’t do much on the defensive end of the ice. He’ll be a decent waiver pick up until at least Markov comes back.

Toronto – after 4 games the Leafs are still winless; and this is only a mild surprise to smart poolies. Tell us if you’ve heard this before; Toronto is struggling to score and the goaltending has been suspect – already. The Leafs revamped defence has been below average, Toskala has been below average and the play of team’s top 6 forwards has been the also below average. Rumors have already started that Burke is looking at trying to change out Toskala – names making to rounds are Manny Fernandez (formerly of Boston) and Erik Ersberg (backing up Jonathan Quick in LA). Gustavsson has been not bad, but has been slowed by a sore groin – which can’t be good this early in the season. Phil Kessel is targeting Nov. 1 as his return, and it can’t come soon enough for coach Wilson. He should be fine, just needing a week or two to break off the rust.

Los Angeles – hard to imagine that Ryan Smyth would have this type of impact on a young Kings team, but after 4 games – the line of Smyth, Kopitar and Williams has 11 points. The Kings young defence has also been better and the early result is the Kings are playing decent hockey. Chances are Smyth won’t keep producing at this clip, but Kopitar could crack the top 10 scorers in the league this season. If Williams is also available is your drafts, he’d be a nice regroup pick at this stage.

Colorado – Craig Anderson has been playing like a legitimate #1 puck-stopper and the Avalanche have been...well...surprising. If he’s still available, Kyle Quincey appears to be repeating his solid season from last year and leads the team’s defence core early in terms of scoring. The line of Hejduk-Stastny-Wolski has been clicking early; we like Stastny and Hejduk to continue, but Wolski is just too fantasy flighty to maintain it and should be a guy you think about moving right now while he’s hot. \

Carolina – Erik Cole looks to be gone for between 4-8 weeks with a leg injury. Cole’s injury may have a season long impact upon him as it’s not the type of injury that will allow Cole to hit the ground running when he comes off the DL. Tuomo Ruutu should be the recipient of Cole’s spot alongside Eric Staal for at least the next month.

Vancouver – the Canucks looked to be just hitting their stride after a shaky 0-3 start, when Daniel Sedin broke his foot after being hit by an Alex Edler shot. Sedin is going to be gone for 6-8 weeks. It appears that the Canucks may try a number of players to fill-in while Sedin’s gone. The early favorite is Steve Bernier, who has played with Henrik (and Daniel) before. For Henrik the loss of his brother will likely mean a drop is his offensive production. Also adversely impacted will be the Canucks PP, where the Sedins often play 1:30 to 2:00 minutes of a Canucks’ PP.

Game On - '09-'10

Just prior to the first regular season games happen this evening, I wanted to take a trip around the league and give you my thoughts on the latest news.

In Toronto, by all reports Vesa Toskala has not been great in the pre-season and many a Leaf fantasy owner is pinning their hopes on Jonas Gustavsson. Toskala's gonna start and Burke will force Wilson to play him early and hopes that he finds fantasy value form, mostly so that he can trade him. Toskala isn't in the long term plans of the Leafs. If he stinks early, expect Burke to start hunting for a legitimate NHL prospect netminder to push Gustavsson. That's a lot of pressure on "the Monster" out of the blocks; smart poolies will remember the fantasy impact of Fabian Brunstrom last year - or the lack thereof. Rumor has Burke already kicking the tires on Corey Schneider's availability out of Vancouver.

Still in Toronto, Viktor Stalberg has been a pleasant surprise for the Leafs this preseason. He's lightening fast and has decent hands and isn't small by NHL standards. We'll see how he does over 82 games, but for now - he's slated to play in the top 6 forwards for TO.

More to follow....

Kessel Turns Over as newest Leaf

Boston has finally traded disgruntled RW Phil Kessel to the Toronto Maple Leafs for two 1st round and a 2nd round draft pick. Immediately the Leafs opened the vault and signed Kessel to a 5 year deal worth $27M.

Fantasy Impact – the rumor around the league is that Kessel was not a popular guy in the young Bruins locker room and that he and Bruins head coach Claude Julien also did not see eye to eye. Now Kessel will join the Leafs and become the teams’ best RW hand down. Poolies should be smiling widely at the prospect of Kessel playing a ton of minutes and will be getting the tap on the shoulder from head coach Ron Wilson in all offensive situations. Kessel’s arrival should also mean good news and added offensive input for the likes Mikael Grabovski and Alexei Ponikarovsky; the Leafs center and left winger on the teams’ top line. The Leafs PP should be improved as well. Now, make no mistake, Kessel won’t be riding shotgun alongside Marc Savard, but his fantasy stats should be about the same. This of course all assumes that Kessel is 100% when he returns to regular season action some time in November.

For the Bruins, this may be a little bit of addition via subtraction. In addition to Kessel’s “lone wolf" sentiment in the locker room and alienation with the coach, there are further rumors that Kessel was not comfortable with the Bruins media either. There is no doubt that the team is going to miss the 36 goals in 70 games that Kessel tallied last year. But his absence also means opportunity for the likes of Ryder and Blake Wheeler. Wheeler seems to be the most likely candidate to receive Kessel’s minutes. Neither Wheeler or Ryder are as talented as Kessel so there might be a slight drop on production for the likes of Savard and Lucic. Similarly, the Bruins PP should see a slight decline in output, but as mentioned the Bruins are a tight team and Kessel’s absence won’t hurt them from a chemistry perspective.

Lastly, don’t be surprised if the Bruins are active toward the trade deadline with now two first round draft picks in the coming two years, as the two first rounders will be attractive to teams looking to off-load veteran salaries for draft picks.

Heatley Swims with the Sharks

Ottawa was finally able to get some value back for the disgrunteld Dany Heatley after then dealt Heatley and a 5th round draft pick to San Jose for Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo and a 2nd rounder.

Fantasy Impact - for Joe Thornton and the San Jose Sharks, their ability to land a bona fide 50 gaol scorer for essentially Michalek and a 2nd rounder, is impressive for the Sharks. It's been a few season since Heatley hit the 50 gaol plateau, but he has done it twice and he'll get prime time minutes with Thornton and as much PP time as he can stomach. Heatley's arrival will also impact the Sharks in another way: what happens to Marleau. Marleau also plays LW, same as Heatley and it makes me wonder if he'll be asked to move to the RW, or perhaps back to his natural center position and allow last years' RW sensation Devin Setoguchi to remain with Thornton and Heatley? Depending on where utlimately either of those two guys end up playing, your best bet for poolies in keeper leagues is to trade Marleau and/or Setoguchi as their trade value may not be any higher than it is right now. We did see Thornton between Marleau and Heatley at the recent Team Canada Olympic Training camp and they were reportedly excellent together. Poolies should also recognize that the Sharks PP has become even deadlier and perhaps the best in the league in Thornton-Setoguchi-Heatley-Boyle-Marleau as their top 5 unit.

For Ottawa, they receive a younger very solid offensive contributor in Michalek, and a big question mark in Cheechoo. They did not receive an NHL ready defenceman as part of this deal, and that could come back to haunt this team. Michalek will now patrol the top spot on the left side beside Spezza and he should do very well. He's not the natural goal scorer that Heatley is, but he did tally 23+ plus goals for the last 3 seasons. He's only 24 and still got some room to improve. That said, he's not ever going to score 50 goals. Jonathan Cheechoo was a bust last season after hitting the 20+ goal plateau the previous 3. On the upside, if he's healthy and gets a decent play-making center to play with, Cheechoo should see 20 goals yet again this season. On the downside, he may just be one of those players who's best year(s) are behind him. For the Senators, the Oilers offer was a better deal for them. Right now, they need Cheechoo to rediscover his scoring touch and they need Michalek to tally at least 30 goals this year for the bad taste in their mouths to dissipate. For the rest of the Senators, they will at least be able to move on now that the Heatley fiasco is behind the team. If the Senators stink early this season, both Cheechoo and Michalek could be moved yet again as the Sens start from scratch and rebuild.

New Look Puckjunkie Finally Up

Usually our blog is reserved for rumours and innuendo throughout the season, but we thought we should drop in a note about our long awaited site redesign. It's literally taken YEARS, but we think we finally have it looking the way we want! Combined with an enhanced Predictor this year (new categories include faceoff wins and faceoff %) we really think we are now the be all and end all of the fantasy hockey prediction business - not that we weren't before, but the look was so 1990's. But who are we to brag? Post a response and let us know what you think about the new look Puckjunkie. And then make sure you have your subscription to the Predictor, because training camp is about to start and hockey season isn't far off!

Trade Deadline Day.

It was not as big a day as last year in terms of the number or names, but there is still enough activity this day in the NHL to make it worth a poolies while to understand any fantasy implications of the moves conducted today. So let’s get to it.

Calgary – in perhaps the biggest trade of the day, Phoenix moved Olli Jokinen to Calgary for Matthew Lombardi, Brandon Prust and a 1st round draft pick. This has been Jokinen’s worst year statistically and fantasy wise in X. It was pretty apparent that he wasn’t going to fit into the long term plans of the ‘Yotes and his move to Calgary should reinvigorate him and his fantasy value. He’s not the best fit to play with Iginla and Cammallerri, but he does provide excellent depth on the 2nd line playing with Moss and Bertuzzi. Jokinen is a better scorer than playmaker, and allowing Bertuzzi to play the role of set-up man should prove beneficial for both players. The fact that he’s going to play in the playoffs for the first time in his career will be a strong motivator as well. For Phoenix, Lombardi will get the chance to perhaps learn from the best player ever how to maximize his considerable talents. He should see his playing time remain about the same with a small bump in value as most players do when they are dealt. If he can actually gel with the ‘Yotes young guns in Mueller, Turris, Boedeker, he may finally realize more fantasy value.. The Flames were not done there, after getting Jokinen, they then turned to the Avalanche and picked up the oft injured Jordan Leopold for Lawrence Nycholat, Ryan Wilson and a second-round pick in 2009. Leopold has never developed into a fantasy relevant player and he’s not going to now.

Edmonton – after watching provincial rival Calgary acquire Jokinen, the Oilers shipped Erik Cole back to Carolina in a 4 team swap that saw Justin Williams go from the ‘Canes to the Kings, the Kings shipped Patrick O’Sullivan to Edmonton, the Sabres shipped Ales Kotalik to the Oilers and the Sabres received a 2nd round pick from the Oilers. All season Erik Cole has looked like a fish out of water and just not comfortable in Edmonton. His move back to Carolina should be a welcome addition to the team and to Cole’s confidence. The Kings get former 30+ goal scorer in Williams, who has not looked like the same player since coming back from achilles tendon surgery earlier this year. Williams’ talent has not abandoned him but it’s apparent that a change of scenery may be a good tonic to restart his game. Patrick O’Sullivan joins an Oilers team and becomes yet another smallish center for the team; but his talent is under-rated.. Kotalik is a former 20+ goal guy, that is not small but sometimes plays that way. Ultimately, the Oilers didn’t want to lose Cole for nothing, and O'Sullivan and Kotalik should help their offense if they get the ice-time and right team-mates.

Pittsburgh – after placing an ex-Islander in Miro Satan on waivers, the fact that the Pens went and acquired another one in Bill Guerin is confusing. Guerin is not as talented as Satan, but he is grittier and does add an element of toughness to a team of forwards that needs someone for them to lead by example. Guerin’s best days are behind him, but if he can click with either Crosby or Malkin he’d be worth a waiver pick of the next 20 odd games. It’s a low risk, high reward situation for the Pens and for you the poolie.

New York (Rangers) – the Rangers were active this trade deadline as they acquired Derek Morris from Phoenix for Dmitri Kalinin, Nigel Dawes and Petr Prucha. They then turn around and acquired Nik Antropov from Toronto for a 2nd round pick, and a conditional draft pick. From a poolies perspective, the Morris move seems to be a lot to give up for a guy that used to be a decent two-way defencemen, but is no longer an offensive threat. He’s a better puck mover than Kalinin, but not enough to part also with Dawes and Prucha. Anticipate a slight bump in Morris’s fantasy value, but not a lot. For Phoenix, the key to this deal is acquiring a steady defenceman and a diminutive, yet talented scorer (at least in junior) in Dawes. Dawes will need top 6 forward minutes to produce, but he another low risk – high reward guy that may blossom with the added ice time. In Antropov, the Rangers get another big bodied forward that has some offensive upside and may be relieved to be out of the fish bowl that is Toronto. Someone is going to place a lot fantasy value on him right now, and he’d be a guy that we’d move for a surer thing.

Boston – the Bruins have had a very good season and have played above most pundits expectations. As a result, they tinkered with their line-up by adding veteran Mark Recchi and Steve Montador at the deadline for a group of young prospects that were not going to be unseating any of the young guns on the Bruins any time soon. Recchi should likely play on the 2nd line with Krejci and Lucic. He’s a much better playmaker now than he is a goal scorer but that’s just what those young guys will be looking for. He’s also likely to see 2nd duty on the PP. He likely to be decent for the next two weeks and a good filler for another guy that might be injured.

Ottawa – in a move to try and shore up the team goaltending, the Sens acquired Pascal Leclaire and a 2nd round pick from the Blue Jackets for consistently inconsistent Antoine Vermette. Leclaire has been injured a lot this season and when healthy, he has not looked like the same goaltender from last year. Expect him to be back sometime in April, but he’ll be the team’s #1 guy come next season. Vermette gets a change in zip code, and the new start should be helpful. He’s better than what he’s displayed this season, but one has to wonder how he’ll flourish under even tougher coach Ken Hitchcock?

Trade Deadline - T Minus 5 hours

Here's the latest -

Anaheim - there are reports that the Anaheim Ducks have told all NHL brass that Chrtis Pronger won't be traded today and he is off the market. This impacts teams looking for d-upgrade as this leaves Kaberle, Kuba, Kubina, Boumeester and Morris moving up the depth chart.

Toronto - Tomas Kaberle left last night game after injuring his recently recovered hand. This is likely to quash any chance that he'll be moved if the injury can be verified to be anything more than day to day.

Ottawa - the Sens are trying to re-sign Chris Neil and Philip Kuba this morning but it appears that both may be moved today if they are unable to reach an agreement with the team. Look for Kuba to garner the most attention, particularly if Pronger and Kaberle are off the market for different reasons.

Trade Dealine - T Minus 24 hours

With less than 24 hours until the NHL's trade deadline, here's the latest rumors we're watching:

Toronto - Domink Moore and Nik Antorpov reportedly did not play tonight and speculation is rampant that the two forwards will be moved tomorrow. Moore is rumored to be headed to the Red Wings to anchor their 3rd line. Antropov appears to be headed to Columbus or Florida. We're not believing the hype on Moore - this is his season to get lots of ice-time and capture lightening in a bottle. With Antropov, C-Bus would welcome the offensive upgrade from Antropov, and he would help them. Tomas Kaberle left tonight's game after apparently re-injuring his hand that had kept him away from the roster for the last 3 weeks.

Minnesota - with the signing of Nik Backstrom today to a long term extension, the Wild can focus on moving Gaborik for at least another roster player and a prospect.

Tampa Bay - Gary Roberts was placed on waivers, while Mark Recchi did not play tonight indicating that both are likely to be moved tomorrow. Recchi appears destined to land back with the Penguins for a playoff push, and Roberts was rumored to be landing with the Sharks or the Flames. Recchi still has some fantasy value, particularly if he sees some time on the PP. Roberts best days are way behind him as is his fantasy value.

Phoenix - Derrick Morris is going to be moved t0morrow, it just remains to be seen where. His fantasy value however is pretty minimal. Oli Jokinen is also on the block, and the list of potential suitors includes Edmonton, Columbus, Minnesota and Vancouver. Asking price will be a prospect and a pick for the cash strapped 'Yotes.

Trade Deadline Day: T minus 3 days (udpated)

Sunday March 1 - with only 3 days to go until the trade deadline, the rumors are really heating up. Here is the latest:

Chris Pronger - St. Louis has reportedly been inquiring about Pronger's availability. St. Louis certainly has the cap space and young talent that the Ducks may be interested in acquiring. The Blues are only 6 points out of a playoff spot and Pronger's appearance would certainly assist them in making a push for that last playoff spot.

Jay Boumeester - with the Panthers apparently unable to re-sign Boumeester, it looks as though they are seeing what they'd be able to get for the pending UFA. The latest is the Flyers dangling Briere, Coburn, van Riemsdyk and Nittymaki for Boumeester and Craig Anderson. This would certainly lighten the salary cap load on the Flyers and finally allow them to get the puck moving defencman that they are desparate to acquire. Anderson is an upgrade for the Flyers as well. For the Panthers, they'd get decent return on Boumeester.

Bill Guerin - has been pulled from the Islanders line-up, in preparation of moving. The mystery team invilved is rumored to be the Boston Bruins. The hang up, is the Bruins not wanting to part with both Matt Hunwick and a 2nd for Guerin.

Buy, Hold, or Sell Part II

Calgary Flames - sitting atop of the division, the Flames are getting decent scoring from other soruces not named Jarome - Conroy, Moss, Boyd and Cammalleri have all contributed. In all three of those cases, we'd be "selling" as these players are playing above their normal fantasy value. The tandem of Iginla and Langkow have been very good and you should continue to "hold" on both. Buying either may be expensive and not necessarily a good thing. Phaneuf is a "hold" as is Kipprusoff - who has been inconsistent still, but better than he has been not. A strong "buy" in deeper league's may be Giordano; plays the powerplay and ships in with a few points and is a mere few games away from gaining the confidence of his coach to playing more minutes. We warned you about Todd Bertuzzi, and even though he's been better lately, he's a serious "sell".

Colorado Avalanche - the injuries just keeping piling up for the 'Lanche. First Joe Sakic suferes a hand injury with his snow-blower and then Paul Stastny blocks a shot with his arm and breaks it and is gone for 6-8 weeks. The only silver lining here is that if the Avalanche can stay close, they will get both of those guys back in about 8 weeks. right in time to help down the stretch toward the playoffs. Sakic is a "buy" as he'll likely be very available and come cheaply. Stastny is a "sell" in our books, as he'll come back that is for certian, but if you are in the hunt, you need scroing right away, and you'll likely still get plenty for him in keeper leagues. JM Liles is the Avs best defencemen, and he's a "sell". He's over-rated, and his shot couldn't break a pane of glass. There has to be some unsuspecting Avs fan that you can move this guy too. Expect the Avs offence to be challenged and they will likely try to move guys into the void where Sakic and Stastny were like Hensick, Arnason and you may see Svatos and/or Wolski play up the middle to try and generate offence. All of these guys should be "sells" in your future plans.

Minnesota Wild - with the news that Marian Gaborik is contemplating season ending surgery to repair a "hip deficiency", the Wild are going to have no choice but to move him for whatever they get for the guy - and it won't be much. For poolie owners, the only hope is that in a keeper league you can move the guy to a team that is rebuilding. The surgery contemplated is one he's had before on his other hip, and he's managed to come back and play very well. If he opts for it, his success to come back for next season should be high, but he won't help anyone this year. He's a "sell" as well as an owner and a "buy" in deeper keeper league's as he should come cheaply. PM Bouchard has been a bust, and with Gaborik out of the line-up, he's been below average. He's a "sell". Brent Burns has also been a disappointment, but he's shown signs of life recently and is a "buy" or "hold" for fantasy owners. Mikko Koivu has been awesome to date, and can't play any better than what owners hav ebeen receiiving; he's a "hold" unless some owner is prepared to give you what his stats show you he may be worth.