Sell, Sell, Sell…a Mike Comrie Special Addendum to the Quarterpole Review

There are some pundits who like to react early in the season…you know the people we mean. The ones who think that after a couple of games that players are going to hit their career highs. Or the ones who will go out on a limb to and project 10-20% increases in projections after an impressive week.

That was the case with the Islanders back in early October. After white hot start, there were fantasy prognosticators fitting them for Stanley Cup rings and calling guys like Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko and especially Mike Comrie to mow down their previous statistical highs.

It is for this reason that we rarely change our projections in October unless there is a trade, injury or significant call-up. It’s too easy to get caught up in the hype. Why spend an entire summer slaving over numbers only to second guess yourself after a few games?

The poster boy for this is Mike Comrie. Here’s a guy who had 4 goals and 6 points after his first two contests. All around the fantasy world owners scrambled to pick him up and “experts” heralded a new era for the diminutive Edmontonian.

But wait, what have we heard of him and his Islander teammates lately? Did we miss the news release with the Stanley Cup parade route?

Nope, Comrie and the rest of his Islander teammates have come back to earth. After 6 points in his first two games and 6 points in a 4 game streak between October 18 and November 1st, he has tallied 6 points in the other 12 games. This is hardly a ringing endorsement for Mike. And more importantly, when you run the numbers again using his first 18 games, it quickly becomes apparent to us that we’re happy sticking with our 55 point projection.

If we were you, we’d look for a taker and trade Comrie as quickly as possible.

Quarterpole Article 3 - D-men and Goaltending Surprises

There have been some amazing goalie and d-men surprises. Here's the list and what you should do with them.

Paul Ranger - TB - There are few that would have seen him as being the eighth best scorer at the quarterpole...and his +11 makes him even more valuable. All that said, we think that you'd be crazy to at least not look for a trading partner given that the majority of his production has come due to the absence of Dan Boyle. And while Boyle is likely out for another month, once he gets back Ranger will likely slow.

Ed Jovanovski - PHX - Many are surprised that he's actually upped his production...we're not. He's a quality guy who has struggled due to injuries and a poor supporting cast. We expect these numbers to continue as long as he stays healthy. We say hold onto him.

Chris Campoli - NYI - We projected a good season from him and he hasn't disappointed. In fact, he's pushed MA Bergeron to the sidelines. We think you should hang onto him and hope he puts up a 40-45 point season.

Mark Streit - MTL - There were many who thought that he'd be valuable because he'd qualify as a d-man but play some wing. But his production has come on the blueline and he's been impressive. That said, it can't hurt to test the water and see if you can pick up a Wade Redden or Bryan McCabe-type player in exchange for him.

James Wisniewski - CHI - We put him on the list only because there are probably some of you who picked him up on the waiver wire early on. He's been hot and cold and we don't think he'll have a lot of trade value...so get whatever points you can from him and drop him once he looks tapped out.

Pascal Leclaire - CLB - Leclaire and the Blue Jackets started off incredibly strong, but have slowed of late. It may not be the worst thing to see if you can move Pascal for a top 3 veteran tender - think Kiprusoff, Broduer or Luongo - even if it means putting together a package including a forward. I heard of one deal that was essentially Leclaire and Vanek for Kiprusoff. Hard to argue with that kind of return!

Martin Gerber - OTT - This is a hard one to predict. Ray Emery has struggled with injuries and in his absence Gerber has been spectacular. It also doesn't hurt that the Sens have played extremely well in front of him. Our feeling is that once Emery sorts out his latest back spasm woes he'll at least challenge to split time with Gerber which will reduce his value. If you can get a quality package in return, we'd move him.

Martin Biron - PHI - No-one really doubted that Biron was capable of being a starter, but few believed that the Flyers or Marty were capable of putting up the number of wins they have this early in the season. Biron is NOT a top 5 goalie and as such, we'd say you should look to move him and take advantage of his early production.

Johan Hedberg - ATL - With Kari Lehtonen hurt, Hedberg has been great in the Thrasher nets. But once Lehtonen sorts out his latest groin injuries, we think that Johan will be quickly forgotten. Trade him if you get a chance.

Jose Theodore - COL - While he hasn't been spectacular all season, Theodore has been very streaky in the Avalanche nets while sharing time with Peter Budaj. At this stage, unless you're dealing with a closet Theodore fan, we'd suggest hanging onto him in the hopes he gets moved to a team looking for a starter...think maybe LA or even a team like Tampa if the Avs were willing to take back some salary - including former Av Marc Denis.

Quarterpole Article 2 - Forward Surprises

As we head into the quarterpole there are ten forwards who stand out in our mind as bona fide surprises. We'll ID them here and let you know whether we think they're going to keep it up or whether you should be looking to take advantage of their lofty status and trade them while you have a chance.

Jarome Iginla - CGY - The Flames are struggling, but Jarome isn't. There are many who would see this as a perfect opportunity to trade him and maximize your profit. We don't think you should. Iggy is the perfect Keenan player. As long as Iron Mike keeps his job (never a guarantee) Jarome will be in the top 10 in scoring. Don't trade!

Rod Brind'Amour - CAR - It's not that we don't think he's an excellent overall player, but it's just that he's 38 years old and it may be in your best interests to try and pick up a couple of younger underachievers. We'd say trade him while you can!

Cory Stillman - CAR - He's not as old as Brind'Amour but we'd definitely put him in the overachieving category. And if your league splits up the forward positions he could be even more valuable because he is a LW'er. We say put him on the market and see what you can get.

Vaclav Prospal - TB - Like Stillman, he qualifies at LW in many leagues and we just can't see him keeping up this pace. And he's a guy ripe for a trade. The Lightning have been rumoured to have him on the market...so why not you?

Mike Richards - PHI - Early in his career many thought that Jeff Carter would be the scorer and he'd be the all-round player. Well, it seems that he's taken a page out of Rod Brind'Amour's book. We're going to give him a cautious hold. Unless you get an offer you can't refuse don't move him. He's getting the chance to play and he's taking advantage.

Patrick Kane/Jonathan Toews - CHI - Because these two super rookies play together we decided to write about them as one. We think that both will likely slow as the season hit's the dog days of January, but don't trade them. They're the future of the Hawks and they could be a building block for your team. We were very surprised when Chicago kept up Kane, but as of now it seems like the right decision.

Tomas Holmstrom - DET - To many this isn't a surprise. He's a beast in front of the net on the powerplay and as long as he stays with Zetterberg and Datsyuk he's going to continue on this torrid pace. We'd hang onto him for now...but be prepared to pull the trigger if it looks like he'll be replaced on the top line.

Nik Antropov - TOR - He started incredibly hot and has slowed. If you can find another sucker...er, owner...to take him off your hands, we suggest doing it quickly. The Leafs are in turmoil and the fewer of them you have the better right now.

Mike Ribeiro - DAL - We knew he was talented, but we didn't think he'd prove himself to be the top centre in Dallas until after Mike Modano retired. He is more than capable of keeping up this pace...keep him for a while.

Markus Naslund - VAN - The guy is on fire with 6 goals in his past 4 games. He's looking like a guy playing for a contract. As long as he stays with the Sedin twins you'd be crazy to trade him. This is a case of squeezing every last point out of him, even if it means you lose trade value if he quickly slips.

Look for defencemen and goalies in our third quarterpole article

Weekly Rumblings...

Calgary - Wow - we actually thought it would have taken ol' Iron Mike Keenan not nearly this long before he began to call out his goalie's play in the media - but after 17 games, Iron Mike has let it be known that he has not been fond of Mikka Kippusoff's play. Frankly, Kipper has been just above average on some nights, but the Flames' defence has been below average and as a result, the Flames are just average. Most would have thought a recent injury to Daymond Langkow would mean more minutes for Craig Conroy between Iginla and Tanguay. Keenan has decided to go with speedster Lombardi on the big line, and the results have been pretty good so far. Looks as though Keenan will keep Lombardi there for now as well, despite Langkow's return. Watch for Langkow to slip alongside Huselius and Conroy to be a pivot for Owen Nolan.

Fantasy Impact:

Lomabardi - Positive
Lankgow - even
Conroy - negative
Iginla - even
Kiprusoff - negative

New York - the Rangers are winning games without major contirbutions from the 4 big guns: Jagr, Gomez, Drury and Shanahan. Of the four, it looks as though Shanahan and Jagr are showing signs of beginning to score while Gomez and Drury are making GM Glen Sather signing of them look like a terrible decision. Brandon Dubinsky was even seeing some time as Jagr's pivot - and the Rangers are still winning. Lundqvist has been very good lately and that has helped, but watch out for the Rangers if the offense begins to catch up. The news that may fly under the radar is that Martin Straka has been finally cleared to begin contact drills and he just might be the lift that the Rangers offense needs.

Fantasy Impact:

Jagr - positive
Shanahan - even
Gomez - positive
Drury - even
Dawes - negative

Phoenix - with the news that Ilya Bryzgalov was placed on waivers, it seems only natural that the Coyotes would scoop him up as this is the team that is still wondering if one of the 4 back-ups they have brought in will become a consistent starter. Bryzgalov is the best of the bunch and when he gets hot, he's proven that he can carry a team for a few months. That said, Giguere was not exactly the west-coast version of Marty Brodeur in playing tons of games, yet Bryzgalov did not take advantage of his opportunity. In Phoenix he'll gets lots of playing time, in front of a young, improving but mistake prone team. he'll likely play very good for a few weeks and then begin to sag somewhat as his team loses close games.

Fantasy Impact:

Bryzgalov - positive
Auld - negative
Tellqvist - negative

Quarterpole Article 1 - Buy, Sell or Hold?

As we approach the quarterpole, it’s natural for most poolies to take a look at their rosters and take stock of who’s playing well and who’s underachieving. Many a poolie has panicked and made an ill-advised trade – moving an underachieving fantasy stud only to have them regain their form. We give you ten guys who are under-achieving immensely, as well as a prognosis of whether we think it’s time to unload (SELL) or hang on to them (HOLD) or get them (BUY). And if you disagree, feel free to post a comment - but make sure you tell us why!

Patrik Elias – NJ – now we knew that it was likely that the very talented Elias was going to miss part-time center Scott Gomez, but no one would have believed that he would have only 3 goals after 17 games this season (and be a disgusting -7). Elias now finds himself playing with Brylin and Gionta and the results have not been very good. Elias has the skills and speed to be a difference-maker for the Devils, but to date his play is indicative of the Devils; it’s just been OK at best. A new style of play, a new coach and a new building have not translated into offence for the Devils. The Devils season is sliding quickly and Elias already has become the subject of many trade rumors. If you can move him, we’d SELL Elias ASAP.

Scott Gomez – NYR – and speaking of the aforementioned Gomez, he is getting paid $10M this season as a high profile free agent, and so far, he’s not been very good. The spooky thing is that he’s been playing with either Jagr or Shanahan – two guys that are familiar with finding the back of the net, and yet still he is struggling. Gomez is still the Rangers most talented pivot, but right now he’s making the team miss Michael Nylander immensely. Chances are Gomez will get it together and begin to find some chemistry with Jagr. When he does, he could be an excellent trade right now as his value should be low. We’d HOLD if owned or BUY if not.

Patrick Marleau – SJ - as a poolie owner, Marleau’s lack of stats are a huge concern. But just imagine how frustrating it has been for the player himself: playing for a coach who benches his best players, plays you (one of his best players) out of position, and doesn’t play you in all special team opportunities. As angry as we may be as a fantasy owner, Marleau has got to be praying for a coaching change. He’s on pace for less than 40 points – his lowest point totals since his rookie season. That said, we think Wilson is on borrowed time, and when he gets fired, you’re likely to see the entire Sharks team breathe a big sigh of relief and then watch out for the offense explosion. We’d HOLD or BUY.

Jonathan Cheechoo - SJ – as painful as it has been for Marleau, multiple that degree of frustration by 1000 when discussing the challenges of Cheechoo. Once again, he appears to be the coach’s whipping boy; he sometimes plays on the top line, but more often than not, the former Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy winner is getting 3rd and 4th line minutes. Most recently, he has also been the subject of trade rumors which has not exactly helped his confidence. A whopping 4 goals to date, and yes he started terribly last year – but we don’t think lightening strikes twice. Do the right thing and SELL Cheechoo ASAP and hope you can get 30 goal value in return.

Tomas Vanek - BUF – what a difference a year makes. Last year, Vanek was establishing himself as a bona fide sniper. This season, he’s been a mere shadow of himself with only 4 goals; he had 43 tallies last year. After matching the RFA offer sheet that the Oilers presented to the young stud last summer, it could not have been a good sign for Sabres management when Vanek publicly came out and stated that he was “scared” how he would perform under the pressure of a massive contract. Well, the proof’s in the pudding and Vanek has been bad, and playing with almost no confidence. That said, we’d still recommend that Vanek is a HOLD or BUY candidate. He’s going to get the hang of things very soon and as a result, he could be a steal…we hope.

Maxim Afinogenov - BUF – similar to Vanek, Afinogenov has had a horrible start and has showed very few signs that he is going to be turning it around soon. He’s actually playing similar hockey to what we saw earlier in his career, where he would not involve his linemates and as a result, he was not that fantasy-worthy. Slowed by injury last year, Afinogenov was almost a PPG guy. This year he has 3 goals in 16 games. Unlike Vanek however, our advice is to SELL. Maxim’s talented, but we’ve seen this act before, and frankly it’s a little scary.

Mark Recchi - PIT– it’s not that we expected that Recchi would revert back to a 30 goal scorer, but after 18 games for Recchi to have only 2 goals…well, that’s a little disconcerting. Yes, he is more a playmaking winger these days then a scorer, but only 2 goals on an offensively talented team is not good. It’s time to let someone else think Recchi’s upside includes time with Crosby and SELL him.

Glen Murray - BOS – after 24 goals in 60+ games and then 28 goals in 58 games, it’s got be more than a little of a noggin’ scratch to understand why Glen Murray has 1 goal in 17 games. He’s been playing with either Savard or Bergeron, so that can’t be the excuse. He’s not been getting much PP time true, but then again his play has not warranted it. He’s the subject of trade rumors daily – most notably to San Jose for under-achieving Cheechoo. We think this is Murray’s last season with the Bruins and very likely the first guy traded from Beantown this season. SELL.

Doug Weight - STL – with only 3 assists and no goals in 15 games, Doug Weight needs to retire and return the contract $ that he’s been collecting this year. No longer the premiere pivot for the Blues, Weight has actually fallen to the 3rd line and now sees only occasional PP time. Even still, he’s been playing the majority of the season with Tkachuk, and well, he’s been really bad. If you can SELL Weight, we’d recommend that you do, because there is no way that he improves enough to make us want to BUY him.

Martin Brodeur - NJ – remember when Marty set the NHL record of 48 wins? Remember when it was just last year that he did that? In 15 games that he’s started, Brodeur has 5 wins and a save percentage in the .880s. Yikes! Yes, the style of play of the team is different, and yes the team is missing Scott Gomez and Brian Raflaski, but there in no way that Brodeur’s save percentage numbers should be this bad. He kind of did something similar last year when he was just OK early and then went crazy over the last 60 games. This year, he’s not been OK and the team looks like they might be in trouble. We put a cautious SELL at this point, but watch for some results from the return of Colin White and Jamie Langenbrunner. This could result in a change to HOLD or BUY if the return of these result in a some improved team performances.

More Rumblings and Happenings

Philadelphia - Simon Gagne finally returned to the Flyers line-up after a bout of 'dizziness' and promptly lasted two periods before exiting with symptoms like, 'dizziness'. It's pretty evident that Gagne is suffering concussion like symptoms from a hit almost three weeks ago. he's improving, but expect him to be out for quite some time. The benefactors of advancing on the roster are Joffrey Lupul and Mike Richards. The Flyers generally will miss Gagne's scoring ability. Mike Knuble likely the most, as he is the one that gets the "garbage" after Gagne and Briere attempt to create offensively

Fantasy Impact:

Lupul - positive
Knuble - negative
Briere - even
Flyers offense - negative

Buffalo - hard to imagine the offensive starved Sabres could been in a worse condition, but after hearing that Tim Connolly is out with an oblique muscle, well, it got worse. Look for the Sabres forwards to try and step up, but the depth on the team is clearly being tested. Daniel Paille, Jochan Hecht and McArthur should get extra minutes, but on a team with a shaky confidence offensively (see Tomas Vanek, it might be a tough ride until Connolly returns.

Fantasy Impact:

Paille - positive
Pominville - negative
Hecht - even
Vanek - negative
Sabres PP - negative

End of an Era?

Peter Forsberg announced today that his attempt at a comeback may be over. After working out for an hour with the Swedish National Team preparing for a possible return to competitive hockey later in the week, Forsberg pulled out saying that his chronically injured foot couldn't take the strain.

If this is indeed the end of his career, he will be remember along with guys like Mike Bossy and Bobby Orr as truly gifted players who had their careers cut short by injuries. We at PJ believe that his career is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration. Here is a guy who even made Euro-trasher Don Cherry sit up and take notice. He was tough as nails, not afraid to battle for the puck and was willing to play through injuries.

From a fantasy perspective this is a blow to those who took a flyer on Peter at the beginning of the season. But there is one thing to remember, he has played through this injury before and he may just do it again...at least for a half season anyway.

Watch this situation closely, if he finds the right NHL "fit" he may just decide to work through the pain for another (final) shot at the Cup.

There are probably only three or four teams that fit the bill and they would have to be competitive at Christmas for him to even think about a comeback. These teams would be: Philadelphia, NY Rangers, and maybe Detroit. There is a darkhorse candidate here...a competitive Canadian team like Montreal might be able to attract Forsberg because it would give him a chance to do something he's never done...play for a Cup in a hockey crazy Canadian city.

Latest Rumblings

Ottawa - Jason Spezza's most recent groin injury, has sidelined the Sens center for the foreseeable future. All this coming on the heels of Spezza signing a huge extended contract (7 years, $49M). Spezza does have the reputation for not being a speedy healer, so we'd be watching this injury very closely. Watch for Steve Kelly and Randy Robitaille to get more playing time, with Robitaille getting the lions share between Alfredsson and Heatley. Robitaille is one of those under-rated guys that should be able to fill the void effectively in the short-term. In the long term, he won't be able to replace Spezza's numbers however.

Fantasy Impact:

Spezza - Negative
Robitaille - Positive
Kelly - Positive
Heatley - even
Alfredsson - even.
Sens PP - Negative

Minnesota - with the return of the Pavol Demitra, it appears that the Wild's offense has been sparked as well. Demitra's an excellent talent, that just needs to stay healthy to reach his fantasy potential. Look for up-swings in production from the Wilds' PP, Demitra's line-mate (Marian Gaborik) and dark horse Mark Parrish, who may get a first line promotion if Demitra's moves to center and Koivu back to 3rd line pivot.

Demitra - positive
Gaborik - positive
Wild PP - positive
Koivu - negative
Parrish - positive

Toronto - there have been rumors aplenty in Hogtown that John Ferguson Jr. is on thin ice and madly trying to stop the bleeding on their back end via trade. From one game to the next, the Leafs defence has looked solid at one moment and then sieve like the next. Rumored on the offering table have been Steen, Weldwood and/or Ian White. Problem for the Leafs are that none of those players, or a combo of, will attract a top 4 defenceman in return; not until the trade deadline. Another rumor has the Leafs moving Tomas Kaberle for soon to be UFA (and under-achieving) Marian Hossa. Scoring is not the issue for the Leafs, but limiting offensive chances is. When Weldwood comes back this week, the Leafs will have a clearer indication of what they have to offer in the hopes of getting defensive help.