Quarterpole Article 1 - Buy, Sell or Hold?

As we approach the quarterpole, it’s natural for most poolies to take a look at their rosters and take stock of who’s playing well and who’s underachieving. Many a poolie has panicked and made an ill-advised trade – moving an underachieving fantasy stud only to have them regain their form. We give you ten guys who are under-achieving immensely, as well as a prognosis of whether we think it’s time to unload (SELL) or hang on to them (HOLD) or get them (BUY). And if you disagree, feel free to post a comment - but make sure you tell us why!

Patrik Elias – NJ – now we knew that it was likely that the very talented Elias was going to miss part-time center Scott Gomez, but no one would have believed that he would have only 3 goals after 17 games this season (and be a disgusting -7). Elias now finds himself playing with Brylin and Gionta and the results have not been very good. Elias has the skills and speed to be a difference-maker for the Devils, but to date his play is indicative of the Devils; it’s just been OK at best. A new style of play, a new coach and a new building have not translated into offence for the Devils. The Devils season is sliding quickly and Elias already has become the subject of many trade rumors. If you can move him, we’d SELL Elias ASAP.

Scott Gomez – NYR – and speaking of the aforementioned Gomez, he is getting paid $10M this season as a high profile free agent, and so far, he’s not been very good. The spooky thing is that he’s been playing with either Jagr or Shanahan – two guys that are familiar with finding the back of the net, and yet still he is struggling. Gomez is still the Rangers most talented pivot, but right now he’s making the team miss Michael Nylander immensely. Chances are Gomez will get it together and begin to find some chemistry with Jagr. When he does, he could be an excellent trade right now as his value should be low. We’d HOLD if owned or BUY if not.

Patrick Marleau – SJ - as a poolie owner, Marleau’s lack of stats are a huge concern. But just imagine how frustrating it has been for the player himself: playing for a coach who benches his best players, plays you (one of his best players) out of position, and doesn’t play you in all special team opportunities. As angry as we may be as a fantasy owner, Marleau has got to be praying for a coaching change. He’s on pace for less than 40 points – his lowest point totals since his rookie season. That said, we think Wilson is on borrowed time, and when he gets fired, you’re likely to see the entire Sharks team breathe a big sigh of relief and then watch out for the offense explosion. We’d HOLD or BUY.

Jonathan Cheechoo - SJ – as painful as it has been for Marleau, multiple that degree of frustration by 1000 when discussing the challenges of Cheechoo. Once again, he appears to be the coach’s whipping boy; he sometimes plays on the top line, but more often than not, the former Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy winner is getting 3rd and 4th line minutes. Most recently, he has also been the subject of trade rumors which has not exactly helped his confidence. A whopping 4 goals to date, and yes he started terribly last year – but we don’t think lightening strikes twice. Do the right thing and SELL Cheechoo ASAP and hope you can get 30 goal value in return.

Tomas Vanek - BUF – what a difference a year makes. Last year, Vanek was establishing himself as a bona fide sniper. This season, he’s been a mere shadow of himself with only 4 goals; he had 43 tallies last year. After matching the RFA offer sheet that the Oilers presented to the young stud last summer, it could not have been a good sign for Sabres management when Vanek publicly came out and stated that he was “scared” how he would perform under the pressure of a massive contract. Well, the proof’s in the pudding and Vanek has been bad, and playing with almost no confidence. That said, we’d still recommend that Vanek is a HOLD or BUY candidate. He’s going to get the hang of things very soon and as a result, he could be a steal…we hope.

Maxim Afinogenov - BUF – similar to Vanek, Afinogenov has had a horrible start and has showed very few signs that he is going to be turning it around soon. He’s actually playing similar hockey to what we saw earlier in his career, where he would not involve his linemates and as a result, he was not that fantasy-worthy. Slowed by injury last year, Afinogenov was almost a PPG guy. This year he has 3 goals in 16 games. Unlike Vanek however, our advice is to SELL. Maxim’s talented, but we’ve seen this act before, and frankly it’s a little scary.

Mark Recchi - PIT– it’s not that we expected that Recchi would revert back to a 30 goal scorer, but after 18 games for Recchi to have only 2 goals…well, that’s a little disconcerting. Yes, he is more a playmaking winger these days then a scorer, but only 2 goals on an offensively talented team is not good. It’s time to let someone else think Recchi’s upside includes time with Crosby and SELL him.

Glen Murray - BOS – after 24 goals in 60+ games and then 28 goals in 58 games, it’s got be more than a little of a noggin’ scratch to understand why Glen Murray has 1 goal in 17 games. He’s been playing with either Savard or Bergeron, so that can’t be the excuse. He’s not been getting much PP time true, but then again his play has not warranted it. He’s the subject of trade rumors daily – most notably to San Jose for under-achieving Cheechoo. We think this is Murray’s last season with the Bruins and very likely the first guy traded from Beantown this season. SELL.

Doug Weight - STL – with only 3 assists and no goals in 15 games, Doug Weight needs to retire and return the contract $ that he’s been collecting this year. No longer the premiere pivot for the Blues, Weight has actually fallen to the 3rd line and now sees only occasional PP time. Even still, he’s been playing the majority of the season with Tkachuk, and well, he’s been really bad. If you can SELL Weight, we’d recommend that you do, because there is no way that he improves enough to make us want to BUY him.

Martin Brodeur - NJ – remember when Marty set the NHL record of 48 wins? Remember when it was just last year that he did that? In 15 games that he’s started, Brodeur has 5 wins and a save percentage in the .880s. Yikes! Yes, the style of play of the team is different, and yes the team is missing Scott Gomez and Brian Raflaski, but there in no way that Brodeur’s save percentage numbers should be this bad. He kind of did something similar last year when he was just OK early and then went crazy over the last 60 games. This year, he’s not been OK and the team looks like they might be in trouble. We put a cautious SELL at this point, but watch for some results from the return of Colin White and Jamie Langenbrunner. This could result in a change to HOLD or BUY if the return of these result in a some improved team performances.

Training Camp Updates

Toronto - the Maple Leafs are reporting that Kyle Wellwood is experiencing trouble with his surgically repaired abdomen. So much so, that it looks like he will need further surgery. Fantasy Impact: this is a huge blow to the Leafs as Wellwood was pencilled in as centering the 2nd line and being the offensive spark-plug for the PP. It will mean Matt Stajan may move up the dpeth chart, but he's not as offensively skilled as Wellwood.

Tucker - Negative
Ponikarovsky - Negative
Stajan - Positive
Leafs PP - Negative

In Pittsburgh, Petr Sykora is recovering from a broken nose. So far, Sykora had been playing with Crosby on the 1st line, which is great news if you held on to Sykora from last year. He's expected to miss 2 weeks at the most. Fantasy Impact: this likely gives Ryan Malone another chance to show that it should be him and not Sykora that deserves the shot with Crosby.

Malone - Positive
Sykora - Negative
Crosby - no impact
Pens Offense - Negative.

In Chicago, young center prospect Jonathan Toews has been sidelined for 2-3 weeks after breaking a bone in his hand. He'll likely be fine by the start of the season, but it does impact his ability to make an impression during training camp. Watch for other prospects to step up to try to fill his spot.

Toews - Negative
Chicago Offense - Negative
Jack Skille - Positive
Michael Blunden - Positive

York signs on in the Desert

Phoenix - Mike York's signing with Phoenix is a low-risk, high reward deal for both sides. York still has 50+ point skills in him, he just needs lots of icetime to make it happen and he'll get plenty in Phoenix. He's worth a late round flyer in drafts but nothing more....in Vancouver, the Canucks re-upped with Kevin Bieksa, and rewarded his under-rated play last year with a 3 year contract extension. Now I am a big Bieksa fan, but I think this might be a bit early for him. Granted he's a bit older, having gotten to the NHL via US college, but Bieksa's had just one full-season in the NHL. Yes, other UFAs are signing for big coin, but Bieksa needs to maintain his consistency in order for the Canucks to justify the signing. Someone will take him about 3 rounds higher than he should go - just ensure that it's not you. Also, the Canucks singed Aaron Miller. This is fantasy news in that it likely means that Vancouver will move either Sami Salo or Matthias Ohlund, or both. Rumor has the Canucks still shopping for a top 6 scoring forward and dangling both those guys is sure to get some attention. Watch for Brent Sopel to also sign with the Canucks, particularly if one or both Salo or Ohlund gets dealt....in Pittsburgh, Sydney Crosby re-upped with the Penguins and signed a contract extension. He's the best player in the league, likely to get even better, and that's awesome news for Crosby owners and scary news for those of us who don't have the guy.