There are some pundits who like to react early in the season…you know the people we mean. The ones who think that after a couple of games that players are going to hit their career highs. Or the ones who will go out on a limb to and project 10-20% increases in projections after an impressive week.
That was the case with the Islanders back in early October. After white hot start, there were fantasy prognosticators fitting them for Stanley Cup rings and calling guys like Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko and especially Mike Comrie to mow down their previous statistical highs.
It is for this reason that we rarely change our projections in October unless there is a trade, injury or significant call-up. It’s too easy to get caught up in the hype. Why spend an entire summer slaving over numbers only to second guess yourself after a few games?
The poster boy for this is Mike Comrie. Here’s a guy who had 4 goals and 6 points after his first two contests. All around the fantasy world owners scrambled to pick him up and “experts” heralded a new era for the diminutive Edmontonian.
But wait, what have we heard of him and his Islander teammates lately? Did we miss the news release with the Stanley Cup parade route?
Nope, Comrie and the rest of his Islander teammates have come back to earth. After 6 points in his first two games and 6 points in a 4 game streak between October 18 and November 1st, he has tallied 6 points in the other 12 games. This is hardly a ringing endorsement for Mike. And more importantly, when you run the numbers again using his first 18 games, it quickly becomes apparent to us that we’re happy sticking with our 55 point projection.
If we were you, we’d look for a taker and trade Comrie as quickly as possible.
Showing posts with label New York Islanders. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Islanders. Show all posts
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Quarterpole Article 3 - D-men and Goaltending Surprises
There have been some amazing goalie and d-men surprises. Here's the list and what you should do with them.
Paul Ranger - TB - There are few that would have seen him as being the eighth best scorer at the quarterpole...and his +11 makes him even more valuable. All that said, we think that you'd be crazy to at least not look for a trading partner given that the majority of his production has come due to the absence of Dan Boyle. And while Boyle is likely out for another month, once he gets back Ranger will likely slow.
Ed Jovanovski - PHX - Many are surprised that he's actually upped his production...we're not. He's a quality guy who has struggled due to injuries and a poor supporting cast. We expect these numbers to continue as long as he stays healthy. We say hold onto him.
Chris Campoli - NYI - We projected a good season from him and he hasn't disappointed. In fact, he's pushed MA Bergeron to the sidelines. We think you should hang onto him and hope he puts up a 40-45 point season.
Mark Streit - MTL - There were many who thought that he'd be valuable because he'd qualify as a d-man but play some wing. But his production has come on the blueline and he's been impressive. That said, it can't hurt to test the water and see if you can pick up a Wade Redden or Bryan McCabe-type player in exchange for him.
James Wisniewski - CHI - We put him on the list only because there are probably some of you who picked him up on the waiver wire early on. He's been hot and cold and we don't think he'll have a lot of trade value...so get whatever points you can from him and drop him once he looks tapped out.
Pascal Leclaire - CLB - Leclaire and the Blue Jackets started off incredibly strong, but have slowed of late. It may not be the worst thing to see if you can move Pascal for a top 3 veteran tender - think Kiprusoff, Broduer or Luongo - even if it means putting together a package including a forward. I heard of one deal that was essentially Leclaire and Vanek for Kiprusoff. Hard to argue with that kind of return!
Martin Gerber - OTT - This is a hard one to predict. Ray Emery has struggled with injuries and in his absence Gerber has been spectacular. It also doesn't hurt that the Sens have played extremely well in front of him. Our feeling is that once Emery sorts out his latest back spasm woes he'll at least challenge to split time with Gerber which will reduce his value. If you can get a quality package in return, we'd move him.
Martin Biron - PHI - No-one really doubted that Biron was capable of being a starter, but few believed that the Flyers or Marty were capable of putting up the number of wins they have this early in the season. Biron is NOT a top 5 goalie and as such, we'd say you should look to move him and take advantage of his early production.
Johan Hedberg - ATL - With Kari Lehtonen hurt, Hedberg has been great in the Thrasher nets. But once Lehtonen sorts out his latest groin injuries, we think that Johan will be quickly forgotten. Trade him if you get a chance.
Jose Theodore - COL - While he hasn't been spectacular all season, Theodore has been very streaky in the Avalanche nets while sharing time with Peter Budaj. At this stage, unless you're dealing with a closet Theodore fan, we'd suggest hanging onto him in the hopes he gets moved to a team looking for a starter...think maybe LA or even a team like Tampa if the Avs were willing to take back some salary - including former Av Marc Denis.
Paul Ranger - TB - There are few that would have seen him as being the eighth best scorer at the quarterpole...and his +11 makes him even more valuable. All that said, we think that you'd be crazy to at least not look for a trading partner given that the majority of his production has come due to the absence of Dan Boyle. And while Boyle is likely out for another month, once he gets back Ranger will likely slow.
Ed Jovanovski - PHX - Many are surprised that he's actually upped his production...we're not. He's a quality guy who has struggled due to injuries and a poor supporting cast. We expect these numbers to continue as long as he stays healthy. We say hold onto him.
Chris Campoli - NYI - We projected a good season from him and he hasn't disappointed. In fact, he's pushed MA Bergeron to the sidelines. We think you should hang onto him and hope he puts up a 40-45 point season.
Mark Streit - MTL - There were many who thought that he'd be valuable because he'd qualify as a d-man but play some wing. But his production has come on the blueline and he's been impressive. That said, it can't hurt to test the water and see if you can pick up a Wade Redden or Bryan McCabe-type player in exchange for him.
James Wisniewski - CHI - We put him on the list only because there are probably some of you who picked him up on the waiver wire early on. He's been hot and cold and we don't think he'll have a lot of trade value...so get whatever points you can from him and drop him once he looks tapped out.
Pascal Leclaire - CLB - Leclaire and the Blue Jackets started off incredibly strong, but have slowed of late. It may not be the worst thing to see if you can move Pascal for a top 3 veteran tender - think Kiprusoff, Broduer or Luongo - even if it means putting together a package including a forward. I heard of one deal that was essentially Leclaire and Vanek for Kiprusoff. Hard to argue with that kind of return!
Martin Gerber - OTT - This is a hard one to predict. Ray Emery has struggled with injuries and in his absence Gerber has been spectacular. It also doesn't hurt that the Sens have played extremely well in front of him. Our feeling is that once Emery sorts out his latest back spasm woes he'll at least challenge to split time with Gerber which will reduce his value. If you can get a quality package in return, we'd move him.
Martin Biron - PHI - No-one really doubted that Biron was capable of being a starter, but few believed that the Flyers or Marty were capable of putting up the number of wins they have this early in the season. Biron is NOT a top 5 goalie and as such, we'd say you should look to move him and take advantage of his early production.
Johan Hedberg - ATL - With Kari Lehtonen hurt, Hedberg has been great in the Thrasher nets. But once Lehtonen sorts out his latest groin injuries, we think that Johan will be quickly forgotten. Trade him if you get a chance.
Jose Theodore - COL - While he hasn't been spectacular all season, Theodore has been very streaky in the Avalanche nets while sharing time with Peter Budaj. At this stage, unless you're dealing with a closet Theodore fan, we'd suggest hanging onto him in the hopes he gets moved to a team looking for a starter...think maybe LA or even a team like Tampa if the Avs were willing to take back some salary - including former Av Marc Denis.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
There have been more signings over the past week or so, so let's get to it shall we? Lots of activity in New York where the Islanders stopped the bleeding somewhat and landed Bill Guerin and Mike Comrie. Across the Sound, the Rangers brought back Brendan Shanahan. In New Jersey, the Devils reached for Dainius Zubris to fill the void left by the departed Scott Gomez. Vitaly Vishnevski and Karel Rachunek also recently signed and will try to fill the hole left by Brian Rafalski. And finally in the Swamp, Kevin Weeks signed to play maybe 6 games for the Devils behind Martin Brodeur.
Signing Guerin was a stop-gap move for the Islanders to be sure, and then naming him the captain of the team...? Might be some depth issues on the island! The Islanders over-achieved last season, as did Guerin, and his stint with the Islanders will not make them a playoff team... and his stats will suffer. It's hard to remember that Mike Comrie is only 28, but he is. It seems that he has been under-achieving so much longer than that. He played better when with the Senators, and even moved to the wing for more playing time. Expect him back down the middle with the departure of Yashin, where he should be valuable on the PP. 60 points is not out of the questions, but his +/- will not be very good. With the Rangers, Brendan Shanahan likely can't wait to lace 'em up with either Gomez or Drury. Gomez is the much better play-maker and if the Rangers are smart they'll make sure that sure-handed sniper Shanahan lands on the wing with him. Always a quick starter, Shanny might have 20 goals before Christmas and then fade a little as the season wears on. Right now, we'd buy low if you can. With the Devils, prepare yourself for some pretty brutal and boring hockey. Losing Rafalski and Gomez and replacing them with Zubruis and Vishnevski is going to mean many "defense first" games for the Devils who will hope that Elias and Gionta can score when they are on the PP. Brodeur will see lots of rubber again this season, but the Devils will ensure those shots are from well out, save for the PP. It will be effective, but it won't be pretty...at all. If Zubruis scores 50 points, I'll be amazed. I'd try and move Elias as well. Last year when Gomez was gone, the Devils' offense disappeared too. Expect more of the same...but all season. Rachunek is a serviceable offensive defenceman, with 25+ point potential. Vishnevski is even less. Just be warned. Now the Devils are rumored to be interested in Alexi Yashin, but it would have to be at the right price and loaded with incentives. Yashin might at least soften the sting of Gomez leaving but it hard to envision him signing there without the Devils naming a coach first....Weekes owners should unload him for whatever they can get - team bus, bag of pucks...heck even a 10th round DP. Unless Marty goes down with a serious injury, Kevin won't see more than a week of playing time this year.
Signing Guerin was a stop-gap move for the Islanders to be sure, and then naming him the captain of the team...? Might be some depth issues on the island! The Islanders over-achieved last season, as did Guerin, and his stint with the Islanders will not make them a playoff team... and his stats will suffer. It's hard to remember that Mike Comrie is only 28, but he is. It seems that he has been under-achieving so much longer than that. He played better when with the Senators, and even moved to the wing for more playing time. Expect him back down the middle with the departure of Yashin, where he should be valuable on the PP. 60 points is not out of the questions, but his +/- will not be very good. With the Rangers, Brendan Shanahan likely can't wait to lace 'em up with either Gomez or Drury. Gomez is the much better play-maker and if the Rangers are smart they'll make sure that sure-handed sniper Shanahan lands on the wing with him. Always a quick starter, Shanny might have 20 goals before Christmas and then fade a little as the season wears on. Right now, we'd buy low if you can. With the Devils, prepare yourself for some pretty brutal and boring hockey. Losing Rafalski and Gomez and replacing them with Zubruis and Vishnevski is going to mean many "defense first" games for the Devils who will hope that Elias and Gionta can score when they are on the PP. Brodeur will see lots of rubber again this season, but the Devils will ensure those shots are from well out, save for the PP. It will be effective, but it won't be pretty...at all. If Zubruis scores 50 points, I'll be amazed. I'd try and move Elias as well. Last year when Gomez was gone, the Devils' offense disappeared too. Expect more of the same...but all season. Rachunek is a serviceable offensive defenceman, with 25+ point potential. Vishnevski is even less. Just be warned. Now the Devils are rumored to be interested in Alexi Yashin, but it would have to be at the right price and loaded with incentives. Yashin might at least soften the sting of Gomez leaving but it hard to envision him signing there without the Devils naming a coach first....Weekes owners should unload him for whatever they can get - team bus, bag of pucks...heck even a 10th round DP. Unless Marty goes down with a serious injury, Kevin won't see more than a week of playing time this year.
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