Around the League and the Latest Rumblings

Toronto - with the Leafs actually playing better hockey over the last 12 games, the banshee's have stopped the screeching for the head(s) of GM John Ferguson Jr. and/or coach Paul Maurice. Quelled is one of the hottest rumor around the league that the Red Wings have a standing offer for Leafs star Mats Sundin. Headed to the Leafs would be Jiri Hudler, Valterri Fillipula and Nik Kronwall, back to the wings would go Sundin and Darcy Tucker. The wings have been smoking hot lately, but as happened last year, the playoffs are another story. Landing Sundin would be huge.

Pittsburgh - the Penguins are a mere rumored two more straight losses before coach Michel Therrien gets the axe. The team has under-achieved to date: poor goaltending and defensive zone coverage have been the major down-falls, but watch for Therrien to get fired before the All-Star break. If that does happen, whomever is the new guy is likely to unite Crosby and Malkin together to begin to generate some offense and immediately look for some defensive help up front with the formation of a 3rd "shut-down" line.

Atlanta - Marian Hossa has been playing better, but even the arrival of veterna Mark Recchi may not be enough to prevent the team from shipping him out to get something prior to him becoming an UFA. The rumored suitors are many, but the strongest package appears to be from the Oilers who are ready to move youth for Hossa. Headed to Atlanta would be Andrew Cogliano, Matt Greene and Robbie Schrempf in exchange for the rental of a bona fide top 10 player.


More to follow.

Sell, Sell, Sell…a Mike Comrie Special Addendum to the Quarterpole Review

There are some pundits who like to react early in the season…you know the people we mean. The ones who think that after a couple of games that players are going to hit their career highs. Or the ones who will go out on a limb to and project 10-20% increases in projections after an impressive week.

That was the case with the Islanders back in early October. After white hot start, there were fantasy prognosticators fitting them for Stanley Cup rings and calling guys like Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko and especially Mike Comrie to mow down their previous statistical highs.

It is for this reason that we rarely change our projections in October unless there is a trade, injury or significant call-up. It’s too easy to get caught up in the hype. Why spend an entire summer slaving over numbers only to second guess yourself after a few games?

The poster boy for this is Mike Comrie. Here’s a guy who had 4 goals and 6 points after his first two contests. All around the fantasy world owners scrambled to pick him up and “experts” heralded a new era for the diminutive Edmontonian.

But wait, what have we heard of him and his Islander teammates lately? Did we miss the news release with the Stanley Cup parade route?

Nope, Comrie and the rest of his Islander teammates have come back to earth. After 6 points in his first two games and 6 points in a 4 game streak between October 18 and November 1st, he has tallied 6 points in the other 12 games. This is hardly a ringing endorsement for Mike. And more importantly, when you run the numbers again using his first 18 games, it quickly becomes apparent to us that we’re happy sticking with our 55 point projection.

If we were you, we’d look for a taker and trade Comrie as quickly as possible.

Quarterpole Article 3 - D-men and Goaltending Surprises

There have been some amazing goalie and d-men surprises. Here's the list and what you should do with them.

Paul Ranger - TB - There are few that would have seen him as being the eighth best scorer at the quarterpole...and his +11 makes him even more valuable. All that said, we think that you'd be crazy to at least not look for a trading partner given that the majority of his production has come due to the absence of Dan Boyle. And while Boyle is likely out for another month, once he gets back Ranger will likely slow.

Ed Jovanovski - PHX - Many are surprised that he's actually upped his production...we're not. He's a quality guy who has struggled due to injuries and a poor supporting cast. We expect these numbers to continue as long as he stays healthy. We say hold onto him.

Chris Campoli - NYI - We projected a good season from him and he hasn't disappointed. In fact, he's pushed MA Bergeron to the sidelines. We think you should hang onto him and hope he puts up a 40-45 point season.

Mark Streit - MTL - There were many who thought that he'd be valuable because he'd qualify as a d-man but play some wing. But his production has come on the blueline and he's been impressive. That said, it can't hurt to test the water and see if you can pick up a Wade Redden or Bryan McCabe-type player in exchange for him.

James Wisniewski - CHI - We put him on the list only because there are probably some of you who picked him up on the waiver wire early on. He's been hot and cold and we don't think he'll have a lot of trade value...so get whatever points you can from him and drop him once he looks tapped out.

Pascal Leclaire - CLB - Leclaire and the Blue Jackets started off incredibly strong, but have slowed of late. It may not be the worst thing to see if you can move Pascal for a top 3 veteran tender - think Kiprusoff, Broduer or Luongo - even if it means putting together a package including a forward. I heard of one deal that was essentially Leclaire and Vanek for Kiprusoff. Hard to argue with that kind of return!

Martin Gerber - OTT - This is a hard one to predict. Ray Emery has struggled with injuries and in his absence Gerber has been spectacular. It also doesn't hurt that the Sens have played extremely well in front of him. Our feeling is that once Emery sorts out his latest back spasm woes he'll at least challenge to split time with Gerber which will reduce his value. If you can get a quality package in return, we'd move him.

Martin Biron - PHI - No-one really doubted that Biron was capable of being a starter, but few believed that the Flyers or Marty were capable of putting up the number of wins they have this early in the season. Biron is NOT a top 5 goalie and as such, we'd say you should look to move him and take advantage of his early production.

Johan Hedberg - ATL - With Kari Lehtonen hurt, Hedberg has been great in the Thrasher nets. But once Lehtonen sorts out his latest groin injuries, we think that Johan will be quickly forgotten. Trade him if you get a chance.

Jose Theodore - COL - While he hasn't been spectacular all season, Theodore has been very streaky in the Avalanche nets while sharing time with Peter Budaj. At this stage, unless you're dealing with a closet Theodore fan, we'd suggest hanging onto him in the hopes he gets moved to a team looking for a starter...think maybe LA or even a team like Tampa if the Avs were willing to take back some salary - including former Av Marc Denis.

Quarterpole Article 2 - Forward Surprises

As we head into the quarterpole there are ten forwards who stand out in our mind as bona fide surprises. We'll ID them here and let you know whether we think they're going to keep it up or whether you should be looking to take advantage of their lofty status and trade them while you have a chance.

Jarome Iginla - CGY - The Flames are struggling, but Jarome isn't. There are many who would see this as a perfect opportunity to trade him and maximize your profit. We don't think you should. Iggy is the perfect Keenan player. As long as Iron Mike keeps his job (never a guarantee) Jarome will be in the top 10 in scoring. Don't trade!

Rod Brind'Amour - CAR - It's not that we don't think he's an excellent overall player, but it's just that he's 38 years old and it may be in your best interests to try and pick up a couple of younger underachievers. We'd say trade him while you can!

Cory Stillman - CAR - He's not as old as Brind'Amour but we'd definitely put him in the overachieving category. And if your league splits up the forward positions he could be even more valuable because he is a LW'er. We say put him on the market and see what you can get.

Vaclav Prospal - TB - Like Stillman, he qualifies at LW in many leagues and we just can't see him keeping up this pace. And he's a guy ripe for a trade. The Lightning have been rumoured to have him on the market...so why not you?

Mike Richards - PHI - Early in his career many thought that Jeff Carter would be the scorer and he'd be the all-round player. Well, it seems that he's taken a page out of Rod Brind'Amour's book. We're going to give him a cautious hold. Unless you get an offer you can't refuse don't move him. He's getting the chance to play and he's taking advantage.

Patrick Kane/Jonathan Toews - CHI - Because these two super rookies play together we decided to write about them as one. We think that both will likely slow as the season hit's the dog days of January, but don't trade them. They're the future of the Hawks and they could be a building block for your team. We were very surprised when Chicago kept up Kane, but as of now it seems like the right decision.

Tomas Holmstrom - DET - To many this isn't a surprise. He's a beast in front of the net on the powerplay and as long as he stays with Zetterberg and Datsyuk he's going to continue on this torrid pace. We'd hang onto him for now...but be prepared to pull the trigger if it looks like he'll be replaced on the top line.

Nik Antropov - TOR - He started incredibly hot and has slowed. If you can find another sucker...er, owner...to take him off your hands, we suggest doing it quickly. The Leafs are in turmoil and the fewer of them you have the better right now.

Mike Ribeiro - DAL - We knew he was talented, but we didn't think he'd prove himself to be the top centre in Dallas until after Mike Modano retired. He is more than capable of keeping up this pace...keep him for a while.

Markus Naslund - VAN - The guy is on fire with 6 goals in his past 4 games. He's looking like a guy playing for a contract. As long as he stays with the Sedin twins you'd be crazy to trade him. This is a case of squeezing every last point out of him, even if it means you lose trade value if he quickly slips.

Look for defencemen and goalies in our third quarterpole article

Weekly Rumblings...

Calgary - Wow - we actually thought it would have taken ol' Iron Mike Keenan not nearly this long before he began to call out his goalie's play in the media - but after 17 games, Iron Mike has let it be known that he has not been fond of Mikka Kippusoff's play. Frankly, Kipper has been just above average on some nights, but the Flames' defence has been below average and as a result, the Flames are just average. Most would have thought a recent injury to Daymond Langkow would mean more minutes for Craig Conroy between Iginla and Tanguay. Keenan has decided to go with speedster Lombardi on the big line, and the results have been pretty good so far. Looks as though Keenan will keep Lombardi there for now as well, despite Langkow's return. Watch for Langkow to slip alongside Huselius and Conroy to be a pivot for Owen Nolan.

Fantasy Impact:

Lomabardi - Positive
Lankgow - even
Conroy - negative
Iginla - even
Kiprusoff - negative

New York - the Rangers are winning games without major contirbutions from the 4 big guns: Jagr, Gomez, Drury and Shanahan. Of the four, it looks as though Shanahan and Jagr are showing signs of beginning to score while Gomez and Drury are making GM Glen Sather signing of them look like a terrible decision. Brandon Dubinsky was even seeing some time as Jagr's pivot - and the Rangers are still winning. Lundqvist has been very good lately and that has helped, but watch out for the Rangers if the offense begins to catch up. The news that may fly under the radar is that Martin Straka has been finally cleared to begin contact drills and he just might be the lift that the Rangers offense needs.

Fantasy Impact:

Jagr - positive
Shanahan - even
Gomez - positive
Drury - even
Dawes - negative

Phoenix - with the news that Ilya Bryzgalov was placed on waivers, it seems only natural that the Coyotes would scoop him up as this is the team that is still wondering if one of the 4 back-ups they have brought in will become a consistent starter. Bryzgalov is the best of the bunch and when he gets hot, he's proven that he can carry a team for a few months. That said, Giguere was not exactly the west-coast version of Marty Brodeur in playing tons of games, yet Bryzgalov did not take advantage of his opportunity. In Phoenix he'll gets lots of playing time, in front of a young, improving but mistake prone team. he'll likely play very good for a few weeks and then begin to sag somewhat as his team loses close games.

Fantasy Impact:

Bryzgalov - positive
Auld - negative
Tellqvist - negative

Quarterpole Article 1 - Buy, Sell or Hold?

As we approach the quarterpole, it’s natural for most poolies to take a look at their rosters and take stock of who’s playing well and who’s underachieving. Many a poolie has panicked and made an ill-advised trade – moving an underachieving fantasy stud only to have them regain their form. We give you ten guys who are under-achieving immensely, as well as a prognosis of whether we think it’s time to unload (SELL) or hang on to them (HOLD) or get them (BUY). And if you disagree, feel free to post a comment - but make sure you tell us why!

Patrik Elias – NJ – now we knew that it was likely that the very talented Elias was going to miss part-time center Scott Gomez, but no one would have believed that he would have only 3 goals after 17 games this season (and be a disgusting -7). Elias now finds himself playing with Brylin and Gionta and the results have not been very good. Elias has the skills and speed to be a difference-maker for the Devils, but to date his play is indicative of the Devils; it’s just been OK at best. A new style of play, a new coach and a new building have not translated into offence for the Devils. The Devils season is sliding quickly and Elias already has become the subject of many trade rumors. If you can move him, we’d SELL Elias ASAP.

Scott Gomez – NYR – and speaking of the aforementioned Gomez, he is getting paid $10M this season as a high profile free agent, and so far, he’s not been very good. The spooky thing is that he’s been playing with either Jagr or Shanahan – two guys that are familiar with finding the back of the net, and yet still he is struggling. Gomez is still the Rangers most talented pivot, but right now he’s making the team miss Michael Nylander immensely. Chances are Gomez will get it together and begin to find some chemistry with Jagr. When he does, he could be an excellent trade right now as his value should be low. We’d HOLD if owned or BUY if not.

Patrick Marleau – SJ - as a poolie owner, Marleau’s lack of stats are a huge concern. But just imagine how frustrating it has been for the player himself: playing for a coach who benches his best players, plays you (one of his best players) out of position, and doesn’t play you in all special team opportunities. As angry as we may be as a fantasy owner, Marleau has got to be praying for a coaching change. He’s on pace for less than 40 points – his lowest point totals since his rookie season. That said, we think Wilson is on borrowed time, and when he gets fired, you’re likely to see the entire Sharks team breathe a big sigh of relief and then watch out for the offense explosion. We’d HOLD or BUY.

Jonathan Cheechoo - SJ – as painful as it has been for Marleau, multiple that degree of frustration by 1000 when discussing the challenges of Cheechoo. Once again, he appears to be the coach’s whipping boy; he sometimes plays on the top line, but more often than not, the former Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy winner is getting 3rd and 4th line minutes. Most recently, he has also been the subject of trade rumors which has not exactly helped his confidence. A whopping 4 goals to date, and yes he started terribly last year – but we don’t think lightening strikes twice. Do the right thing and SELL Cheechoo ASAP and hope you can get 30 goal value in return.

Tomas Vanek - BUF – what a difference a year makes. Last year, Vanek was establishing himself as a bona fide sniper. This season, he’s been a mere shadow of himself with only 4 goals; he had 43 tallies last year. After matching the RFA offer sheet that the Oilers presented to the young stud last summer, it could not have been a good sign for Sabres management when Vanek publicly came out and stated that he was “scared” how he would perform under the pressure of a massive contract. Well, the proof’s in the pudding and Vanek has been bad, and playing with almost no confidence. That said, we’d still recommend that Vanek is a HOLD or BUY candidate. He’s going to get the hang of things very soon and as a result, he could be a steal…we hope.

Maxim Afinogenov - BUF – similar to Vanek, Afinogenov has had a horrible start and has showed very few signs that he is going to be turning it around soon. He’s actually playing similar hockey to what we saw earlier in his career, where he would not involve his linemates and as a result, he was not that fantasy-worthy. Slowed by injury last year, Afinogenov was almost a PPG guy. This year he has 3 goals in 16 games. Unlike Vanek however, our advice is to SELL. Maxim’s talented, but we’ve seen this act before, and frankly it’s a little scary.

Mark Recchi - PIT– it’s not that we expected that Recchi would revert back to a 30 goal scorer, but after 18 games for Recchi to have only 2 goals…well, that’s a little disconcerting. Yes, he is more a playmaking winger these days then a scorer, but only 2 goals on an offensively talented team is not good. It’s time to let someone else think Recchi’s upside includes time with Crosby and SELL him.

Glen Murray - BOS – after 24 goals in 60+ games and then 28 goals in 58 games, it’s got be more than a little of a noggin’ scratch to understand why Glen Murray has 1 goal in 17 games. He’s been playing with either Savard or Bergeron, so that can’t be the excuse. He’s not been getting much PP time true, but then again his play has not warranted it. He’s the subject of trade rumors daily – most notably to San Jose for under-achieving Cheechoo. We think this is Murray’s last season with the Bruins and very likely the first guy traded from Beantown this season. SELL.

Doug Weight - STL – with only 3 assists and no goals in 15 games, Doug Weight needs to retire and return the contract $ that he’s been collecting this year. No longer the premiere pivot for the Blues, Weight has actually fallen to the 3rd line and now sees only occasional PP time. Even still, he’s been playing the majority of the season with Tkachuk, and well, he’s been really bad. If you can SELL Weight, we’d recommend that you do, because there is no way that he improves enough to make us want to BUY him.

Martin Brodeur - NJ – remember when Marty set the NHL record of 48 wins? Remember when it was just last year that he did that? In 15 games that he’s started, Brodeur has 5 wins and a save percentage in the .880s. Yikes! Yes, the style of play of the team is different, and yes the team is missing Scott Gomez and Brian Raflaski, but there in no way that Brodeur’s save percentage numbers should be this bad. He kind of did something similar last year when he was just OK early and then went crazy over the last 60 games. This year, he’s not been OK and the team looks like they might be in trouble. We put a cautious SELL at this point, but watch for some results from the return of Colin White and Jamie Langenbrunner. This could result in a change to HOLD or BUY if the return of these result in a some improved team performances.

More Rumblings and Happenings

Philadelphia - Simon Gagne finally returned to the Flyers line-up after a bout of 'dizziness' and promptly lasted two periods before exiting with symptoms like, 'dizziness'. It's pretty evident that Gagne is suffering concussion like symptoms from a hit almost three weeks ago. he's improving, but expect him to be out for quite some time. The benefactors of advancing on the roster are Joffrey Lupul and Mike Richards. The Flyers generally will miss Gagne's scoring ability. Mike Knuble likely the most, as he is the one that gets the "garbage" after Gagne and Briere attempt to create offensively

Fantasy Impact:

Lupul - positive
Knuble - negative
Briere - even
Flyers offense - negative

Buffalo - hard to imagine the offensive starved Sabres could been in a worse condition, but after hearing that Tim Connolly is out with an oblique muscle, well, it got worse. Look for the Sabres forwards to try and step up, but the depth on the team is clearly being tested. Daniel Paille, Jochan Hecht and McArthur should get extra minutes, but on a team with a shaky confidence offensively (see Tomas Vanek, it might be a tough ride until Connolly returns.

Fantasy Impact:

Paille - positive
Pominville - negative
Hecht - even
Vanek - negative
Sabres PP - negative

End of an Era?

Peter Forsberg announced today that his attempt at a comeback may be over. After working out for an hour with the Swedish National Team preparing for a possible return to competitive hockey later in the week, Forsberg pulled out saying that his chronically injured foot couldn't take the strain.

If this is indeed the end of his career, he will be remember along with guys like Mike Bossy and Bobby Orr as truly gifted players who had their careers cut short by injuries. We at PJ believe that his career is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration. Here is a guy who even made Euro-trasher Don Cherry sit up and take notice. He was tough as nails, not afraid to battle for the puck and was willing to play through injuries.

From a fantasy perspective this is a blow to those who took a flyer on Peter at the beginning of the season. But there is one thing to remember, he has played through this injury before and he may just do it again...at least for a half season anyway.

Watch this situation closely, if he finds the right NHL "fit" he may just decide to work through the pain for another (final) shot at the Cup.

There are probably only three or four teams that fit the bill and they would have to be competitive at Christmas for him to even think about a comeback. These teams would be: Philadelphia, NY Rangers, and maybe Detroit. There is a darkhorse candidate here...a competitive Canadian team like Montreal might be able to attract Forsberg because it would give him a chance to do something he's never done...play for a Cup in a hockey crazy Canadian city.

Latest Rumblings

Ottawa - Jason Spezza's most recent groin injury, has sidelined the Sens center for the foreseeable future. All this coming on the heels of Spezza signing a huge extended contract (7 years, $49M). Spezza does have the reputation for not being a speedy healer, so we'd be watching this injury very closely. Watch for Steve Kelly and Randy Robitaille to get more playing time, with Robitaille getting the lions share between Alfredsson and Heatley. Robitaille is one of those under-rated guys that should be able to fill the void effectively in the short-term. In the long term, he won't be able to replace Spezza's numbers however.

Fantasy Impact:

Spezza - Negative
Robitaille - Positive
Kelly - Positive
Heatley - even
Alfredsson - even.
Sens PP - Negative

Minnesota - with the return of the Pavol Demitra, it appears that the Wild's offense has been sparked as well. Demitra's an excellent talent, that just needs to stay healthy to reach his fantasy potential. Look for up-swings in production from the Wilds' PP, Demitra's line-mate (Marian Gaborik) and dark horse Mark Parrish, who may get a first line promotion if Demitra's moves to center and Koivu back to 3rd line pivot.

Demitra - positive
Gaborik - positive
Wild PP - positive
Koivu - negative
Parrish - positive

Toronto - there have been rumors aplenty in Hogtown that John Ferguson Jr. is on thin ice and madly trying to stop the bleeding on their back end via trade. From one game to the next, the Leafs defence has looked solid at one moment and then sieve like the next. Rumored on the offering table have been Steen, Weldwood and/or Ian White. Problem for the Leafs are that none of those players, or a combo of, will attract a top 4 defenceman in return; not until the trade deadline. Another rumor has the Leafs moving Tomas Kaberle for soon to be UFA (and under-achieving) Marian Hossa. Scoring is not the issue for the Leafs, but limiting offensive chances is. When Weldwood comes back this week, the Leafs will have a clearer indication of what they have to offer in the hopes of getting defensive help.

Gagne Sidelined/Toronto Rumor

Philadelphia - after suffering a hit in a recent game, the Flyers medical staff now believe that Simon Gagne may have suffered a concussion and he is listed day-to-day, but could go on the DL any day. Gagne is still suffering from dizziness, and is not close to skating. for poolies, this is bad news for Gagne owners. Joffrey Lupul owners should see a jump in opportunities however, as it appears that he and Scott Hartnell will vie for the #1 wingers' spot alongside Daniel Briere.

Fantasy Impact:

Gagne - negative
Briere - negative (mild)
Hartnell - positive
Lupul - positive

Toronto - there are reports from Hogtown that the Leafs are inquiring about the availability of Marian Hossa from the Atlanta Thrashers. Hossa has started slowly, and has also been dealing with a nagging groin injury, and so far, his stats are weak. For Toronto, the issue really isn't getting more scoring up front (despite the ACL injury to Tucker), it is there defensive play in their own end that is costing them games. This trade seems unlikely, but it would certainly shake things up for both teams. Hossa would welcome a move, but we're not sure just how well he'd do under the micro-scope of Toronto.

Fantasy Impact:

Hossa - even
Kaberle - negative
Leafs Offense - positive (slight)
Leafs Defence - negative
Thrashers Defence - positive
Thrashers Offense - negative
Hossa - negative

Bergeron out indefinately after check from behind

Boston - After watching Flyers defenceman Randy Jones run Patrice Bergeron's head into the top of the dasher on the boards, one can't help but wonder what the frick is going on with the Flyers. Steve Downie, Jesse Boulerice and now Jones, have been involved in incidents that have to be characterized as harmful not only to the player, but also the game. Undoubtedly, Jones' careless play will be seen by every media outlet in North America for the next week, and the question has to be asked, what is going on with the NHL? Of course, everyones' concern has got to be for Bergeron, but despite the previous suspensions, it looks as though the players are still not getting the message. Regrettably, from a Fantasy perspective there is impact. Jones has been a pleasant sup rise for the Flyers on the point this year, and Bergeron has actually played much better this season as well. Expect the impact to the Flyers to be more significant as the players will have to answer questions for the next 2 weeks about what kind of team they are and the impact of the incident. For the Bruins, Bergeron is a big part of their offense and his absence won't be easily replaced; particularly for his line-mates.

Fantasy Impact:

Bruins PP - negative
Flyers PP - negative
Sturm - negative
Savard - positive (more ice)
Kessel - negative

Can a New Coach Mean New Life for a Team?

The firing of a coach can be a wakeup call for a team and often results in a short term boost in points. In the case of the Atlanta Thrashers it may also result in two bursts. With Bob Hartley fired and no permanent replacement on the horizon, GM Don Waddell will step behind the bench.

Look for the Thrashers to produce over the next couple of days...and in fact, it may be a good time to flip a couple of these guys if the price goes up.

Many will think that the reason for Waddell taking up the coaching duties, even temporarily, is a move of desperation or shows a lack of planning on his part. I don't buy that for a second. I think he has an idea of who he wants to be the coach but he wants to see the game from "ice level" to get a sense of the changes that might need to be made.

From a fantasy perspective, don't be surprised if one of Hossa or Kovalchuk are moved. Right now this team is far two unbalanced because of the salaries of these two guys and with Hossa a pending UFA at the end of the year, it may make more sense to use him as an asset to add depth the squad...depth that was squandered in trading for Keith Tkachuk and Alexei Zhitnik at the trade deadline last year.

If Hossa or Kovalchuk are dealt it will most likely be to a team with a top-end center already in place...this could mean an almost instantaneous bump in points.

But that is mere speculation right now. In the short term look for a slight bump in offense from the big boys in Atlanta, but don't expect it to last very long without a significant change in personnel.

The Latest Rumblings...

Minnesota - the Wild's big line of Demitra-Koivu-Gaborik looks to have not found the same offensive success as it's 2nd line of Roslton-Belanger-Bouchard. The Wild are trying Koivu at center between their two big guns and so far, not much is happening. Koivu's not a natural play-maker and so far, it's adversely impacting Demitra and Gaborik. Belanger, a solid two-way forward, seems to be providing the spark for the unheralded Rolston and Bouchard. If Belanger is available in your league, go and get him. He may not be able to maintain this production for an extended period, but he'll be hot for awhile.

Fantasy Impact:

Belanger - positive
Bouchard - positive
Rolston - even
Gaborik - negative
Demitra- negative
Koivu - positive

Nashville - with Shea Weber out with a dislocated knee, this should mean more playing time on the PP for Dan Hamhuis and Marik Zidlicky. So far, it appears that Hamhuis seems to be thriving much better than Zidlicky. Weber may be gone for up to 6 weeks, and if you haven't gotten Hamhuis, you should.

Fantasy Impact:

Hamhuis - positive
Zidlicky - even (so far)
Preds PP - even

Boston - Manny Fernandez is out with an injury, and the team is turning to last years incumbent Tim Thomas to carry the laod. Fernandez is not supposed to be gone for long, and Thomas should hold the fort while the team continues on a long road trip. Of bigger concern is the absence of Marc Savard, who is out with a rumored groin injury. Savard is needed to provide the spark for the Bruins offense.

Fantasy Impact:

Savard - negative
Murray - negative
Bergeron - positive
Sturm - even
Thomas - positive

After the First few days...

...here's the latest rumblings that we are hearing after only a few days.

San Jose - the new big line of Marleau-Thornton-Cheechoo we think won't be together for very long. Marleau's a better scorer and the hope from the Sharks is that his move to the wing will be able to use his speed and shot to generate offence. Marleau hasn't played on the wing since junior and this move puts alot of the Sharks offensive eggs in one basket. Coach Ron Wilson will be adversely impacting Marleau's and Michalek's stats significantly with this experiment...and not positively.

Fantasy Impact:

Marleau - negative
Thornton - positive (marginally).
Cheechoo - positive
Michalek - negative

Edmonton - with three rookies in their line-up, the Oilers are pinning their hopes on their youth movement. Gagner, Brodzniak and Cogliano are showing some chemistry early, but we still think it will be Brodzniak and Cogliano that stay for the season and Gagner likely gets sent down.

Fantasy Impact:

Cogliano - positive
Gagner - positive
Brodzniak - positive

Chicago - it took all of one game for Martin Havlat to suffer what appears to be a significant injury; this one to his shoulder. If it's a separation or dislocation he'll be gone from 2 weeks - 4 months. Watch this closely...

Fantasy Impact:

Blackhawks offense - negative
Robert Lang - negative
Sergei Samsonov - negative

Predictor Updating - When We Do It

Every year we get questions about when and why we update the Predictor. We always get notes that say...you said you would be updating every day, but there are players that haven't been updated in a month!

There's a reason for that. We are very confident in our predictions and the only reason we will make a change is if a particular circumstance changes. Below we list the only reasons we will make a change to a prediction:

• Injury
• Trade
• Signing
• Rookie/Prospect makes the team
• Other significant news

That's it. We don't like to "tweak" just for the heck of it. We are not likely to play with a star's stats just because of his linemates...however, if a roleplayer has a shot at playing with Jagr or Crosby or Ovechkin, you'll likely see that reflected with an update.

We are very proud of our predictions. We exceeded the accuracy of our competition last season (using their own criteria). But it's important for all of us to realize that just like with your fantasy team it's sometimes best not to react...instead take a deep and evaluate the situation. And that's what we like to do.

Days Away...Update

With only a few day from the start of the season for everyone that was not a Duck or King, here is the latest from training camps:

Montreal - the future appears right around the corner for the Montreal Canadiens and goaltender Carey Price. Price won the back-up job from Jaroslav Halak in camp and looks to be the heir apparent for the Habs between the pipes. The good news for Price is that Huet has shown he won't likely finish the season without a stint on the DL. The bad news is that there will be lots of pressure on him if he does get a crack at the No. 1 job; so don't be surprised if he struggles a bit early. That said, Huet owners would do well to snag Price in their drafts just in case.

Fantasy Impact:

Price - positive
Huet - negative/positive
Halak - negative

Edmonton - it looks like the Oilers pivots this season will be Horcoff, Stoll and the a rotation of Marty Reason, Sam Gagner and Andrew Coglinao. Cogliano has looked very good in camp, and Gagner recently signed, may get sent right away to junior or he will audition for 9 games before getting sent down. Cogliano likely will cement himself on the 4th line for now, but should see lots of minutes early in the season. He's still at least one year away from a full-time impact role while Gagner will need likely two.

Fantasy Impact:

Cogliano - positive
Reasoner - negative
Gagner - positive

Vancouver - it looks as though defence prospect Luc Bourdon will be headed for Winnipeg this season as he has not had a memorable camp. Bourdon looks to be a longer term project at this stage the the Canucks had orginally hoped...and fantasy owners too.

Fantasy Impact:

Bourdon - negative
Canucks D-depth - negative

Los Angles - after cementing a roster spot in camp, it looks as though coach Marc Crawford is going to roll the dice with 19 year old goal-tending blue-chipper Jonathan Bernier as he starter. Bernier had a better camp than Jason LaBarbara, and as a result has the inside track on the No. 1 job for now. Expect Crawford to play both likely 60-40 assuming Bernier and LaBarbara stay healthy and perform.

Fantasy Impact:

Bernier - positive
LaBarbara - negative
Kings goal-tending - positive (they had Sean Burke for a spell last year...yikes).

More Training Camp Updates...

Philadelphia - after an exhibition game with Ottawa recently, the Flyers are walking wounded. Lupul and Upshall are down with left wrist injuries and R.J. Umberger broke a finger in his hand. These guys are all likely be back long before Dean McAmmond after McAmmond received a devastating hit in the same game and left the game on a stretcher. My take on the fantasy impact is as follows:

Lupul's Offense - Negative
R.J Umberger's secure roster spot - Negative
Scott Upshall's secure roster spot - Negative
Flyers Depth - Negative
Dean McAmmond's secure roster spot - Negative

Anaheim - Matthieu Schneider's broken ankle is at least two weeks from having him place his foot in a skate. Not great news for fantasy owners as Schneider will be counted on to pick up some of the offense from the indifferent Scott Niedermayer. The good news is that Schneider misses 10 games every season, and this year, it will be at the beginning of the season.

Fantasy Impact:

Schneider's contribution - Negative

Washington - recent reports have seen the Caps trying Viktor Kozlov playing with Alexander Ovechkin. Michael Nylander has been under-whelming to date, but it's hard to imagine that they would pay this much for a UFA and not play him with Ovechkin. He's a better play-maker than Kozlov but needs to show more than he has to date. That said, watch this development closely.

Fantasy Impact:

Ovechkin - Negative
Nylander - Negative
Kozlov - Positive
Caps offense - Negative

Vancouver - Young Ryan Kessler has been centering Markus Naslund and Ryan Shannon in training camp to date, and Brendan Morrison has been between Matt Cooke and Jannick Hansen. It appears that Canucks management is not sold on the Morrison-Naslund combo and are seeing if Kessler can jump-start Naslund's offense...risky!

Fantasy Impact:

Kessler's Offense - Positive
Naslund's Offense - Even
Morrison - Negative

Training Camp Updates

Toronto - the Maple Leafs are reporting that Kyle Wellwood is experiencing trouble with his surgically repaired abdomen. So much so, that it looks like he will need further surgery. Fantasy Impact: this is a huge blow to the Leafs as Wellwood was pencilled in as centering the 2nd line and being the offensive spark-plug for the PP. It will mean Matt Stajan may move up the dpeth chart, but he's not as offensively skilled as Wellwood.

Tucker - Negative
Ponikarovsky - Negative
Stajan - Positive
Leafs PP - Negative

In Pittsburgh, Petr Sykora is recovering from a broken nose. So far, Sykora had been playing with Crosby on the 1st line, which is great news if you held on to Sykora from last year. He's expected to miss 2 weeks at the most. Fantasy Impact: this likely gives Ryan Malone another chance to show that it should be him and not Sykora that deserves the shot with Crosby.

Malone - Positive
Sykora - Negative
Crosby - no impact
Pens Offense - Negative.

In Chicago, young center prospect Jonathan Toews has been sidelined for 2-3 weeks after breaking a bone in his hand. He'll likely be fine by the start of the season, but it does impact his ability to make an impression during training camp. Watch for other prospects to step up to try to fill his spot.

Toews - Negative
Chicago Offense - Negative
Jack Skille - Positive
Michael Blunden - Positive

A Crash Course On Sleepers

As training camps open you'll hear a lot of talk about this guy or that guy being sleepers. I know that we've written about this in the past, but we'll write about it again. Many people misuse the term. In our mind a sleeper is a guy who could, given the right circumstances, perform BETTER than expected. It is different than a risk pick - which we would define as a guy who, because of potential injury, attitude or a trade, could perform BETTER or WORSE than expected. So, is it possible for a top 20 scorer to be a sleeper? Absolutely. Off the top of my head there is one guy that comes to mind - Michael Nylander. Here's a guy that performed very well last year, but this year, playing with Alex Ovechkin in Washington, he could be even better.

Some pundits get it. They mine the depth charts of teams and come up with some really interesting names. Here's an interesting article I found. Rather than use the same old tired names, Sean Allen dug a little deeper. Sure there are some "standards" in here - Dainius Zubrus, Petr Sykora and Scott Hartnell - but there are also some other guys who he thinks could go from the depths of obscurity to some decent playing time in the NHL. Props to Sean for an interesting and inspiring piece. Check out the article here: http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?id=3012943&sport=nhl&ft=ss

Oh, and by the way, subscribers to the Puckjunkie Predictor will get to see our own Sleeper Projections in an article to be released in the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned.

Training Camp Surprises

With training camps starting to open on Tuesday, we thought we'd list a few of our thoughts heading into the pre-season.

1. Scott Niedermayer hasn't made a decision on retirement. For a guy with supposedly so much class, this is nothing but a distraction (and arguably a detriment) to his team.
   
2. Teemu Selanne hasn't made a decision on retirement. Unlike Niedermayer, Selanne is a free agent and is entitled to do what he likes. You have to wonder if the Niedermayer decision (or lack of decision) is also impacting what he does.
   
3. Ray Emery still looking for medical clearance. This was kept very quiet throughout the off-season, but Emery still hasn't received clearance from his doctor to resume playing after his wrist surgery. Here's hoping that it's just a formality.
   
4. What's going to happen in the Leafs' crease? With Vesa Toskala and Andrew Raycroft in camp, there will be a real dogfight for "pipe time" during the pre-season. Someone better establish themselves as the undisputed #1 or it will make for a very uncomfortable October.
   
5. Are the Oilers good enough to keep from handing Brian Burke a good lottery pick? Heading into camp there are many who wonder if the Edmonton Oilers are good enough to make the playoffs. There are those who even think that the loss of Jason Smith on the backend will make them even more vulnerable. And more importantly, after losing a 2008 1st, 2nd and 3rd to Anaheim to sign Dustin Penner, they better hope they don't end up giving the Ducks the top pick in next year's draft.

Roenick un-retires to be a Shark (Wow?)

The news that Jeremy Roenick has accepted a deal to join the San Jose Sharks is great news for fans and writers of the game, but for fantasy owners, his impact days are long behind him. My take is he'll play third line center at most, behind Thornton and Marleau, and be a decent shut-down pivot but very limited offensively. If you're drafting Roenick with the hope he might rekindle some magic, you are wasting a draft choice. My advice is to avoid him altogether and instead take a real flyer on a younger player with upside.

Negative - only if you draft him.
Positive - who knows, he might see 35 points if sees a little PP time.
Positive - for what he brings to the room, and the Sharks run to the playoffs.

Does San Jose Know the Way to the Cup?

If I was building a team, any team (either in sports or the business world), I would be sure to take many pages out of Doug Wilson's book. The man is a genius. In fact, I would almost guarantee that in the next few years you will see his works in print - not as a hockey biography, but as a strategy for building an organization.


I don't know how he does it. First off he now has 19 NHLers under contract, yet has in excess of $13 million of cap space. And we're not talking about a team like Phoenix, who are actively stay at the salary cap floor. Here we have a team bursting with talent, that is positioning itself to have its pick of the litter when its opponents are looking to jetison salary. Could we be looking at another Joe Thornton-type trade? I would almost guarantee it.


In the past week alone, Wilson has also done two things that have turned heads. First, he was able to get Patrick Marleau to sign a two-year extension at, what many believe, is a bargain basement price - ensuring that the captain will be in the Bay area through the 09/10 season. Second, he signed Jeremy Roenick to a 1 year, $500k contract. To many people this is an act of folly, but let's dig a little deeper and see what we see. Wilson and Roenick have a long relationship, dating back to their days in Chicago. Wilson was the veteran leader of the Hawks and Roenick grew a lot under his mentorship. If anyone knows JR, its Wilson. If he thinks Roenick can contribute, then he can. And more importantly, if there's anyone Roenick would not want to disappoint, it's Wilson.


Add these two moves to locking up Joe Thornton and Craig Rivet through 10/11 and Milan Michalek through 13/14, and you have a team with a nucleus all signed to reasonable contracts.


Sure they are still 1 or 2 d-men short and they've lost a good chunk of their goaltending depth, but let's revisit this in November, once teams have started paring salary and Doug Wilson comes acalling.


Joe Thornton - neutral (still 2nd leading scorer in NHL)
Patrick Marleau - positive
Milan Michalek - positive
Craig Rivet - positive

Kunitz Re-Ups in Anaheim

Something very interesting happened in Orange County today. No, it's not more surfing penguins on a movie lot. But the Ducks signed Chris Kunitz to a 4 year , roughtly $15 million contract. Whether Kunitz is worth that or not is debatable. But the fact that he's signed prior to Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry, is very surprising.

There is one of two things at work here. Either a) the agents for Getzlaf and Perry have insisted their clients are going to become restricted free agents and Burke had no choice but lock Kunitz up. Or b) Getzlaf and Perry contracts are nearly done and they just haven't been announced yet because of the situation surrounding Scott Niedermayer's possible retirement. For the sake of Ducks fans we hope it's the latter.

Kunitz is a solid overall player...he benefitted considerably from playing a lot with Andy MacDonald and Teemu Selanne, and we think it will be a stretch for him to repeat his offensive success of last year. He may get matched up with Getzlaf and Perry, which will help them defensively, but that's probably it.

Kunitz - neutral (or slightly negative)
Getzlaf - neutral
Perry - neutral

Peca - where is he going?

With what appears to be the imminent signing of Mike Peca with the NY Rangers, TSN is reporting that the Columbus Blue Jackets are interested in the 33 year old center's services as well. With the Rangers current cap between $51-55M in salaries, it would appear that the Blue jackets, closer to $38M, have the space to offer Peca more in terms of guaranteed $. Peca's impact will now no longer been on the regular season stat sheet, but comes in the dressing room and when the playoffs arrive. Poolies should not be convinced that Peca can turn back the hands of time to re-gain some of his offensive flare, as he's suffered some horrific injuries and has a lot of miles clocked on his hockey odometer. That said, Peca's signing would have a very good impact on the younger Blue Jacket players and bring some much needed leadership and spirit to a team that appears to be devoid of it. The Jackets have even more space with Alexander Svitov signing up over-seas. He'd see more playing time in C-Bus and play a larger role there. If he signs with the Rangers, it means Peca's focus is on on trying to win a Cup this year. His impact won't be a large with the Rangers, but would certainly be felt once the playoffs began.

Peca - positive w/ CBJ and even w/ NYR
PK - positive
Playoff Impact - big positive at both places.

Fantasy Hockey Sites vs. Hockey Rumour Sites

The debate over the value of hockey rumour sites rages on blogs all over the net. My own personal views on anonymous rumour bloggers and other speculation-driven sites aside, I think that's important that we address where the Puckjunkie Blog fits.

Rarely will we ever report a "unique" rumour. That's not our job. Most times what you'll hear from us when it comes to trade/signing speculation will be the fantasy impacts of these rumours. The best example of this would be the two-part entry we did on d-men (July 15th and 20th). None of the rumours in there were new...they have been bandied about on a number of sites for quite a while. What we wanted to do was talk about what could happen to the players' fantasy value if they actually DID happen or, possibly speculate on other homes for these guys based not on what media folks bandy amongst themselves in the dog days of summer, but on team needs, cap space and a small dose of logic.

And that's really where we see our role in this era of the overly speculative bloggers. We have an obligation to our readers to let you know the potential impacts from all these "what-ifs". But that doesn't mean that we'll comment on every crazy rumour out there...and believe me there have been so many wacky ones of late, it's hard to keep up.

Thanks,

Jonathan Kinney, President
Puckjunkie.com

Auld on the Move

Phoenix - The Coyotes are certainly changing the face of their goaltending; Curtis Joseph is out and David Aebischer and Alex Auld are in. That said, the 'Yotes goaltending consists of a bunch of tier II calibre goalies: Aebischer, Auld, David LeNeveu and Mikael Tellqvist. This should prove an interesting battle for the #1 and assuredly #1A spots between the pipes in the desert. With this list, we think it's pretty obvious that the organization wants to ensure that Tellqvist can be a #1. For the Coyotes, this deal is a low risk high reward. None of these guys is paid much by NHL standards, but they all have the ability to carry a team for a stretch of 20 some games. That said, some time, you get what you pay for. Here's how this signing impacts the fantasy picture in Phoenix:

• Auld - Positively.
• Aebischer - Negatively.
• Tellqvist - Negatively
• LeNeveu - Negatively.

Who's Next?

...as we slide into the dog days of summer, Baroids Bonds is about to sully the most impressive single achievement record in professional sports, the hockey poolie has to be wondering "what's going on with my team?" as training camps are now a mere 5 weeks away. Here's the latest off the rumor wire...Edmonton - now that GM Kevin Lowe has p-o'ed his good buddy GM Brian Burke, [but really, should Burke be that peeved that Lowe over-spent for Penner? Was he supposed to take a bigger risk in poolies' eyes and sign Bertuzzi to the same $ but only over 2 years? Is it Lowe's fault that few, if any, free agents want to come to Alberta's capital?], rumor has the Oilers and Thrashers talking about a potential move of Ilya Kovulchuk to Edmonton in return for draft picks and 3 players - Cogliano, O'Marra and Matt Greene. This is a similar rumor to that coming out of San Jose, where the Sharks management is worried that they may not be able to sign Patrick Marleau in 2008 and as a result, are looking to see what they could get for the soon to be UFA. In Atlanta, an ownership squabble has forced the Thrashers to trim payroll to $40M. GM Don Waddell has got to move either Kovulchuk or Hossa, whom the team would rather try and sign as he is the more complete player, but Hossa is going to be a UFA in 2008 as well....in Montreal, after signing Patrice Brisebois to a one-year deal, the Habs are rumored to be in the market to sign Danny Markov, and unite the Markov brothers. Detroit is still trying to bring the burly d-man back as well. Wherever he signs, don't expect a lot of offensive production. The Brisebois signing begins anew the love-hate relationship between Hab-fans and Brisebois. Brisebois does provide them with some veteran presence as well as a 2nd unit PP QB....Peter Forsberg remains unsigned, and most teams are rumored to be interested in seeing how he heals up in the next few weeks before beginning serious talks. Rumor has the Canucks trying to land Forsberg with an incentive laden contract to let him play with close friend Markus Naslund. However, the smart money is that Forsberg wants to play in Colorado one last time - assuming he's ready to go by training camp....Mike Peca has been advertising his desire to return to Buffalo and pilot the team where he saw the greatest success in his career. The Sabres are said not to be interested, particularly given that Peca is looking for $4M for a one year deal. If he comes down to the $2M per season level, the Sabres, Habs, Canucks and Coyotes are rumored to be "kicking the tires"....Anson Carter remains unsigned, and might remain that way right into the start of training camp. Carter had a brutal season last year, and any thoughts of him singing for more than $1M per season are ludicrous. He needs the precise situation to succeed - he had it in Vancouver two seasons ago but got greedy and now may be on the outside looking in for quite some time....

Penner an Oiler

What impact will Brain Burke not matching the Oilers' offer sheet for Dustin Penner have? Well, the only thing we know for sure at this point is that Kevin Lowe isn't going to be on the Anaheim GM's Christmas card list this year.


But other than that...it's all up in the air. Penner will be expected to play on the top line. He will be expected to meet or exceed the 29 goals he had in 06/07. And, most importantly, he'll have to deflect the scrutiny of the Edmonton faithful who may resent the fact that this money should have been directed towards re-signing Ryan Smyth at last season's trade deadline.


The lineup in Anaheim is still a bit uncertain. GM Burke signed Todd Bertuzzi as insurance against Teemu Selanne jumping ship...not against losing Penner. As a result, he's still one forward down. But he can't go out and trade for a big name without knowing whether Scott Niedermayer is going to retire. Add to this the fact that Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry (who are RFAs next summer), will be looking for Penner money PLUS, in order to lock them up early.

So out of this what do we see for production:

Penner - even (or maybe a drop)
Hemsky - even (similar to his production when Smyth was in the lineup)
Perry and Getzlaf - improved (doesn't matter who they match with them)

The D-Man Factor - Part Deux

As promised we'll take a quick look at a few more buyers and sellers on the blueliner market.


Philadelphia: The Flyers, as of this writing, are currently pushing the cap so will be looking at a number of options including tradiing Denis Gauthier or Derian Hatcher (although rumours abound that they'll just put him on waivers with the intent of sending him to the minors - thus freeing up a significant amount of cap space). Gauthier, on the other hand, could be an interesting pick up for a team looking for a little sandpaper. There are a number of teams who could be interested, but the Flyers have themselves in a bit of a pickle...they would need to get a d-man in return...and they'd probably need one who could play some decent minutes - but he'd need to be cheap. Possible trading partners would include:

• Anaheim - if Niedermayer retires they will have plenty of cap room and will need a minute eater with some grit. Going the other way would be a guy like Huskins or Hnidy.
• Detroit - the loss of Danny Markov would mean Gauthier would be a great fit. The Flyers would probably want a guy like Lebda, but it's doubtful the Wings would give him up.
• Nashville - with the loss of scoring, they're going to need to rough up the opposition a bit more. Trading a guy like Greg Zanon and a pick for Gauthier could make some sense.

Regardless of where Gauthier goes his fantasy value is really limited to PIMs plus possibly +/- if he goes to the right team.


Toronto: With the recent signing of Derrek Walser, the Leafs have 10 NHL-calibre d-men under contract. Rumours of a Pavel Kubina trade abound, but the question remains as to who could absorb the contract. A quick review of the numbers reveals that there are very few contenders who could make a deal without sending significant salary back to the Leafs. The three teams with the best balance of cap space and ability to contend would be San Jose, Nashville and maybe the Devils. In all three cases Kubina would likely be given more PP time than he would have received in Toronto, but he would be counted on for his all-round play. If he were to move you could expect a point bump up to near his career norms in the mid-30s.


New York Rangers: Talk of a Paul Mara trade has been circulating for a few weeks. There are two problems with this deal. First is the fact that Mara will be making $3 million this season which limits possible takers AND he's entering his final season, which limits those looking for long-term value. Although he could move to a team looking to off-load long term contracts and still maintain the minimum cap levels. If that happens and he ends up on a team like Phoenix, Chicago or Columbus, he could struggle and the numbers could be disastrous from a fantasy perspective.

The New NHL

Ottawa - already the changing face of the Ottawa Senators has begun, as new club GM Murray has dealt Peter Schaefer and his 3 year, almost $7M deal to the Bruins for Sean Donovan, at 1 year, just under $1M. This is pretty much a salary dump, that changes the chemistry a bit for the Senators, but gives Schaefer a legitimate shot to be a top 6 forward on the Bruins, hungry for scoring. Schaefer has soft hands and good wheels, and is an under-rated penalty killer. Donovan can skate, and is a gritty guy in the corners, but the message Murray sends here is that he is clearing cap space to sign some cheaper Tier II UFAs or getting ready to try and lock up Dany Heatley prior to him becoming a UFA next season. Fantasy Impact with the Trade:

Schaefer – Positive
Savard or Bergeron – Positive
Senators Depth - Negative
Bruins Powerplay – Positive
Bruins Penalty Kill - Positive

The D-man Factor

With Sheldon Souray off the block, the last of the big-time blueliner UFAs is officially off the market. So what now for teams looking to bolster their rearguard ranks?

Rumour has it that a few teams (very few) are willing to move d-men in exchange for either younger/cheaper talent, similarly priced talent in different positions or less talented players going into their free agent years (meaning cap flexibility next season).

We'll take a quick look at the buyers and sellers and the fantasy implications:

Vancouver: With Bieksa locked up, the signing of Aaron Miller and the chance of either Alex Edler or Luc Bourdon filling a full-time roster spot, Mattias Ohlund is rumoured to be on the move in exchange for a top end forward. Most people are talking Patrik Elias, but assuming the Canucks are taking offers from everywhere, there are a number of other options. Many are talking about Patrick Marleau going to the east, but a swap of Ohlund for Marleau would certainly help the Sharks ease the sting of losing Scott Hannan. The only thing for Vancouver would be to secure Marleau with a long term deal. There has also been talk of Milan Hejduk being on the move...and while an inter-division trade is not the norm, the opportunity for both teams to address needs may result in the setting aside of traditional rivalries. Either way, the Canucks can offer probably the most enticing d-man out there - great at both ends of the ice, affordable and signed through the 2008-2009 season. Any one of Elias, Marleau, or Hejduk would do wonders for the Canucks sometime aenemic offence, but don't expect any of them to produce much beyond their career norms if a trade does go down.

Phoenix: There has been talk of Ed Jovanovski being on the the block in the desert. And while this would make sense, his contract could make a deal less likely than one involving Ohlund. At $6.5 million per year most contenders would need to do some juggling and given that the Coyotes would not want to be saddled with long term contracts, this could prove to be a difficult proposition for teams like the Rangers, who allegedly head the list of interested parties. Now if the Panthers were to step up (they seemed to be interested a couple of weeks back) and offer a package that included Alex Auld, Stephen Weiss and/or Anthony Stewart, they could get something done. And it would be a deal that would make sense for all parties. Wherever Jovo goes look for the numbers to pop...

Anaheim: Let's imagine for a moment that Scott Niedermayer calls up Brian Burke tomorrow and says "I'm coming back next season." Of course Burke's first reaction will be joy at the prospect of having his leader return. But then he will have to face the daunting reality of 3 massive contracts at the back end with an unfilled forward spot that was once occupied by Teemu Selanne. At that point he'll likely need to look at moving Francois Beauchemin. And, like Ohlund teams will be lining up to take a shot. The team that loses the Ohlund sweepstakes will likely step up with an offer. As well, it's possible that Florida could look at a swap...wouldn't Auld and Stewart make sense (especially if Burke is looking to trade Bryzgalov)? Beauchemin as a PP quarterback on another team could have a career year, while any newly acquired forward would probably be paired up with Andy McDonald.

Next time we'll take a look at some eastern teams who could be looking to move d-men including Philly (Denis Gauthier), Toronto (Pavel Kubina), and the Rangers (Paul Mara).

Souray Comes Home

Edmonton - GM Kevin Lowe, made a huge splash today when he announced that the team has reached an agreement with UFA Sheldon Souray. Souray is an Elk Point, AB native. Terms were not immediately available, but as a poolie, you care not about such things, and much more about what that means for the Oilers PP and Souray's fantasy pool impact. Last year, Souray was a PP phenom, with 19 of his 26 goals coming on the PP. He finished with 66 points. This coming year, Souray will be more offensively challenged. The Oilers forwards are not as talented as the Habs, and that's not a very good thing from the perspective of a high-scoring defenceman. Souray and Pitkanen will arm the Oilers PP, and there are no two better PP QBs in the league, but without the help up front, Souray won't hit 60+ points again. Remember that when drafting him this season, and pencil him in for 50+. Questions abound about Souray's chemistry in the dressing room, but that's not your concern until it effects his play...further, with the Oilers, there are reports that the Oilers are interested in trading for 2008 UFA Patrick Marleau of the San Jose Sharks. Coming back to the Sharks would be Cogliano, Matt Greene and a 1st rounder in 2008. Marleau is exactly the player that the Oilers could use, and he'd log as many minutes as he could take. The likelihood of this deal transpiring seems remote, but for Oilers fans - they can dream.

Canucks Build From the Rear

With the signing of Aaron Miller and the re-signing of Kevin Bieksa, 'Nucks GM Dave Nonis served notice that the era of defensive hockey in Vancouver is firmly entrenched. The Canucks are now in the enviable position of boasting a solid 6 man starting d-corps, with the prospect of rookie Luc Bourdon and possibly UFA Brent Sopel platooning in the seventh spot (assuming Bourdon doesn't end up in Manitoba for the season). Notwithstanding the rumours that either Ohlund or Salo are on the trading block, what Nonis has done - relatively cheaply - is to ensure that his team has the best opportunity possible of wininng close games. And while the offensively challenged Canucks may not light the lamp at the other end too often, they can rest assured that they shouldn't have any trouble keeping the puck out of their own net. The fantasy impact is clear -Loungo is even more valuable now than ever. If this group stays together, look for his GAA to drop even lower, and his number of shutouts to increase. The only stat that might hurt is his Sv% as he may see less rubber! Team plus/minus should also benefit, though obviously, scoring a few more goals will help on this front too.

York signs on in the Desert

Phoenix - Mike York's signing with Phoenix is a low-risk, high reward deal for both sides. York still has 50+ point skills in him, he just needs lots of icetime to make it happen and he'll get plenty in Phoenix. He's worth a late round flyer in drafts but nothing more....in Vancouver, the Canucks re-upped with Kevin Bieksa, and rewarded his under-rated play last year with a 3 year contract extension. Now I am a big Bieksa fan, but I think this might be a bit early for him. Granted he's a bit older, having gotten to the NHL via US college, but Bieksa's had just one full-season in the NHL. Yes, other UFAs are signing for big coin, but Bieksa needs to maintain his consistency in order for the Canucks to justify the signing. Someone will take him about 3 rounds higher than he should go - just ensure that it's not you. Also, the Canucks singed Aaron Miller. This is fantasy news in that it likely means that Vancouver will move either Sami Salo or Matthias Ohlund, or both. Rumor has the Canucks still shopping for a top 6 scoring forward and dangling both those guys is sure to get some attention. Watch for Brent Sopel to also sign with the Canucks, particularly if one or both Salo or Ohlund gets dealt....in Pittsburgh, Sydney Crosby re-upped with the Penguins and signed a contract extension. He's the best player in the league, likely to get even better, and that's awesome news for Crosby owners and scary news for those of us who don't have the guy.

There have been more signings over the past week or so, so let's get to it shall we? Lots of activity in New York where the Islanders stopped the bleeding somewhat and landed Bill Guerin and Mike Comrie. Across the Sound, the Rangers brought back Brendan Shanahan. In New Jersey, the Devils reached for Dainius Zubris to fill the void left by the departed Scott Gomez. Vitaly Vishnevski and Karel Rachunek also recently signed and will try to fill the hole left by Brian Rafalski. And finally in the Swamp, Kevin Weeks signed to play maybe 6 games for the Devils behind Martin Brodeur.

Signing Guerin was a stop-gap move for the Islanders to be sure, and then naming him the captain of the team...? Might be some depth issues on the island! The Islanders over-achieved last season, as did Guerin, and his stint with the Islanders will not make them a playoff team... and his stats will suffer. It's hard to remember that Mike Comrie is only 28, but he is. It seems that he has been under-achieving so much longer than that. He played better when with the Senators, and even moved to the wing for more playing time. Expect him back down the middle with the departure of Yashin, where he should be valuable on the PP. 60 points is not out of the questions, but his +/- will not be very good. With the Rangers, Brendan Shanahan likely can't wait to lace 'em up with either Gomez or Drury. Gomez is the much better play-maker and if the Rangers are smart they'll make sure that sure-handed sniper Shanahan lands on the wing with him. Always a quick starter, Shanny might have 20 goals before Christmas and then fade a little as the season wears on. Right now, we'd buy low if you can. With the Devils, prepare yourself for some pretty brutal and boring hockey. Losing Rafalski and Gomez and replacing them with Zubruis and Vishnevski is going to mean many "defense first" games for the Devils who will hope that Elias and Gionta can score when they are on the PP. Brodeur will see lots of rubber again this season, but the Devils will ensure those shots are from well out, save for the PP. It will be effective, but it won't be pretty...at all. If Zubruis scores 50 points, I'll be amazed. I'd try and move Elias as well. Last year when Gomez was gone, the Devils' offense disappeared too. Expect more of the same...but all season. Rachunek is a serviceable offensive defenceman, with 25+ point potential. Vishnevski is even less. Just be warned. Now the Devils are rumored to be interested in Alexi Yashin, but it would have to be at the right price and loaded with incentives. Yashin might at least soften the sting of Gomez leaving but it hard to envision him signing there without the Devils naming a coach first....Weekes owners should unload him for whatever they can get - team bus, bag of pucks...heck even a 10th round DP. Unless Marty goes down with a serious injury, Kevin won't see more than a week of playing time this year.

The Flogging of Kevin Lowe

Let me preface what I'm about to say by being completely upfront...I'm a Sabres fan and have been for a long time. And being a Sabres fan comes with a bit of a persecution complex - probably the proximity to Toronto. For many of us it seemed to hit a high point in the 1999 Stanley Cup Finals...and YES, Brett Hull's foot was in the crease! But it seems that the Hull incident has taken a backseat to what Sabres ownership and management see as an all out financial assault against their their team.

In the mind of GM Darcy Regier and Owner Larry Quinn, Buffalo has been unduly picked on in the free agent market. To make matters worse, a fellow small-market team (the Edmonton Oilers) actually had the gall to attempt to sign one of their restricted free agents (Tomas Vanek) to an offer sheet. Now the fact that the Oilers did this, or the exorbitant size of the contract or even the fact that this comes on the heals of the team losing Daniel Briere, Chris Drury and Zubrus of unrestricted free agency, has nothing to do with my problem with the situation.

What truly bothers me was the reaction of the Sabres and how it reflects on the NHL "fraternity". Darcy Regier admitted that Kevin Lowe phoned him to say he was submitting an offer sheet. And Regier's response? "It was always going to be a match situation, and they were well aware of it (Thursday night) that we were going to match...I explained exactly what was going to happen. Why he shouldn't do it. Why it was pointless to do it." Quinn even went as far as to contact the President of the Oilers! He said that "he had gotten wind of this and we're going to match."

Does anyone else out there see what's happening? Sabres management is attempting to collude with another team to keep Tomas Vanek from receiving an offer sheet. No-one knows what the Sabres had been offering up to this point. Why should Kevin Lowe or any other GM stop trying to better their team simply because another GM says "don't bother".

If I were the NHLPA or the agents I'd be taking a video tape of this to my lawyers to see whether there is an Anti-Trust case here. In fact, if Gary Bettman does not come down harshly on the Sabres for their comments he will appear complicit and could find himself dragged in front of a Congressional Hearing in the US (if members of Congress even know what hockey is).

So what're the fantasy implications of this? Not a lot really, but it's a perspective that I think that most people have glossed over in their analysis of this situation. Most Sabres fans have focused on the "everyone's picking on us" scenario. While everyone else is wondering about how many other RFAs will be getting offers. But from my perspective, the thought of the "C word" being brought up should be a scary proposition...just ask Major League Baseball. ESPN published a very interesting 35 year history of baseball's contentious labour history (http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/bp/1427632.html). Have a look and see if you see the striking similarities. One piece that really jumped out at me was this:

Negotiations for a new deal in 1990 took place against a
backdrop of three years of owner collusion. Unable to limit free agency at the
bargaining table, from 1985 through 1987 the owners simply agreed among
themselves not to sign one another's free agents, in violation of a no-collusion
clause in the CBA. After losing three separate arbitrations on the issue, the
owners ultimately agreed to pay the players $280 million for wages lost as a
result of collusion.

Could the same thing happen in hockey? If people like Darcy Regier and Larry Quinn keep up their crazy talk, I'd almost guarantee it.